Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of Keynesian Policies in 1930s' Britain

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: University of Warwick; Loughborough University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050713000880
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 1077-1104
• 关键词: government purchases; fiscal-policy

摘要

We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and defense news. We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.3 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was less than is generally supposed. We find that rearmament gave a smaller boost to real GDP than previously claimed. Rearmament may, however, have had a larger impact than a temporary public works program of similar magnitude if private investment anticipated the need to add capacity to cope with future defense spending.