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作者：Cunha, Flavio; Heckman, James J.; Navarro, Salvador
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Pennsylvania; University College Dublin; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：This article extends the widely used ordered choice model by introducing stochastic thresholds and interval-specific outcomes. The model can be interpreted as a generalization of the GAFT (MPH) framework for discrete duration data that jointly models durations and outcomes associated with different stopping times. We establish conditions for nonparametric identification. We interpret the ordered choice model as a special case of a general discrete choice model and as a special case of a dynami...
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作者：Barbarino, Alessandro; Jovanovic, Boyan
作者单位：New York University
摘要：This article provides a microfoundation for the rise in optimism that seems to precede market crashes. Small, young markets are more likely to experience stock-price run-ups and crashes. We use a Zeira-Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Optimism then grows rationally if traders' prior distribution over market size has a decreasing hazard. Such prior beliefs are appropriate if most new markets are duds and only a few reach a large size. The crash occurs when capacity outstrips...
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作者：Ai, Chunrong
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：This article studies estimation of a conditional moment restriction model with the seminonparametric maximum likelihood approach proposed by Gallant and Nychka (Econometrica 55 (March 1987), 363-90). Under some sufficient conditions, we show that the estimator of the finite dimensional parameter theta is asymptotically normally distributed and attains the semiparametric efficiency bound and that the estimator of the density function is consistent under L-2 norm. Some results on the convergence...
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作者：Albrecht, James; Anderson, Axel; Smith, Eric; Vroman, Susan
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Essex
摘要：We construct a model of the housing market in which agents differ in their flow values while searching. Agents enter the market relaxed (with high flow values) but move to a desperate state (low flow values) at a Poisson rate if they have not already transacted. We characterize the equilibrium steady-state matching pattern and the joint distribution of price and time to sale (for sellers). The expected price conditional on time to sale falls with time spent on the market, whereas the condition...
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作者：Lee, Sanghoon
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：American students study harder in college than in high school, whereas East Asian students study harder in high school than in college. This article proposes a signaling explanation. Signaling may occur over time both in high school and in college, and societies may differ in the timing of signaling. Students work harder in the signaling stage determined by the society as a whole. A testable implication is that high ability workers in East Asia are more concentrated among a few colleges than t...
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作者：Keane, Michael P.; Wolpin, Kenneth I.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Technology Sydney; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：A particularly challenging use of decision-theoretic models in economics is to forecast the impact of large changes in the environment. The problem we explore in this article is how to gain confidence in a model's ability to predict the impact of such large changes. We show that an approach to validation and model selection that includes the choice of a '' nonrandom holdout sample,'' a sample that differs significantly from the estimation sample along the policy dimension that the model is mea...
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作者：Matzkin, Rosa L.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：I present nonparametric methods to identify and estimate the biases associated with response errors. When applied to survey data, these methods can be used to analyze how observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondent, and characteristics of the design of the survey, affect errors in the responses. This provides a method to correct the biases that those errors generate, by using the estimated response errors to '' undo '' those biases. The results are useful also to design bette...
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作者：Horner, Johannes; Ngai, L. Rachel; Olivetti, Claudia
作者单位：Boston University; Northwestern University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This article shows that state control of some industries may have contributed to the increase in European unemployment from the 1970s to the early 1990s. We develop a simple two-sector model, one privately run and one publicly run, that has risk-averse workers directing their search into one of the sectors. Assuming that the privately run sector is less able to insure its employees against uncertainty, we show that aggregate unemployment in this economy increases in response to an increase in ...
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作者：Boyarchenko, Svetlana; Levendorskii, Sergei
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Continuous time models in the theory of real options give explicit formulas for optimal exercise strategies when options are simple and the price of an underlying asset follows a geometric Brownian motion. This article suggests a general, computationally simple approach to real options in discrete time. Explicit formulas are derived even for embedded options. Discrete time processes reflect the scarcity of observations in the data, and may account for fat tails and skewness of probability dist...
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作者：Aradillas-Lopez, Andres; Honore, Bo E.; Powell, James L.
作者单位：Princeton University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：This article extends the pairwise difference estimators for various semilinear limited dependent variable models proposed by Honore and Powell (Identification and Inference in Econometric Models. Essays in Honor of Thomas Rothenberg Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2005) to permit the regressor appearing in the nonparametric component to itself depend upon a conditional expectation that is nonparametrically estimated. This permits the estimation approach to be applied to nonlinear models...
