Exploring the usefulness of a nonrandom holdout sample for model validation: Welfare effects on female behavior

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Keane, Michael P.; Wolpin, Kenneth I.
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; University of Technology Sydney; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
• 刊物名称: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0020-6598
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2354.2007.00465.x
• 发表日期: 2007
• 页码: 1351-1378
• 关键词: program; REFORM; IMPACT

摘要

A particularly challenging use of decision-theoretic models in economics is to forecast the impact of large changes in the environment. The problem we explore in this article is how to gain confidence in a model's ability to predict the impact of such large changes. We show that an approach to validation and model selection that includes the choice of a '' nonrandom holdout sample,'' a sample that differs significantly from the estimation sample along the policy dimension that the model is meant to forecast, can be fruitful.