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作者：Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Central banks routinely use short-horizon forecasts of the quarterly price of oil in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook. We address a number of econometric issues specific to the construction of quarterly oil price forecasts in the United States and abroad. We show that quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed vector autoregressive models estimated on monthly data generate the most accurate real-time forecasts overall among a wide range of methods, in...
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作者：Giovannoni, Francesco; Makris, Miltiadis
作者单位：University of Bristol; University of Southampton
摘要：We consider auctions where bidders care about the reputational effects of their bidding and argue that the amount of information disclosed at the end of the auction will influence bidding. We focus on bid disclosure rules that capture all of the realistic cases. We show that bidders distort their bidding in a way that conforms to stylized facts about takeovers/licence auctions. We rank the disclosure rules in terms of their expected revenues and find that, under certain conditions, full disclo...
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作者：van der Ploeg, Frederick; Withagen, Cees
作者单位：University of Oxford; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
摘要：Optimal climate policy is investigated in a Ramsey growth model of the global economy with exhaustible oil reserves, an infinitely elastic supply of renewables, stock-dependent oil extraction costs, and convex climate damages. Four regimes can occur, depending on the initial social cost of oil being larger or smaller than that of renewables and depending on the initial oil stock being large or small. We also offer some policy simulations for the first and second regime, which illustrate that w...
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作者：Mitchener, J. K.; Yan, S.
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作者：Wright, Randall; Wong, Yuet-Yee
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Binghamton University, SUNY
摘要：We study exchange that is bilateral but indirect-it involves chains of intermediaries, or middlemen-in markets with frictions. These frictions include search and bargaining problems. We show how, and how many, intermediaries might get involved in a chain, and how bargaining with one depends on upcoming negotiations with those downstream. The roles of buyers, sellers, money, and prices are discussed, allowing us to clarify some neglected connections between different branches of search theory. ...
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作者：Galeotti, Andrea; Merlino, Luca Paolo
作者单位：University of Essex; University of Vienna; Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：We develop a model where workers, anticipating the risk of becoming unemployed, invest in connections in order to access information about available jobs that other workers may have. The investment in connections is high when the job separation rate in the labor market is moderate, whereas it is low for either low or high levels of job separation rate. The equilibrium response of network investment to changes in the labor market conditions generates novel empirical predictions. In particular, ...
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作者：Geromichalos, Athanasios
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：I study a directed search model of oligopolistic competition, extended to incorporate general capacity constraints, congestion effects, and pricing based on ex post demand. In the presence of any one of these ingredients, the Bertrand paradox fails to hold. Hence, despite the emphasis that has been placed by the literature on sellers' capacity constraints as a resolution to the paradox, the existence of such constraints is only a subcase of a general class of environments where the paradox fai...
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作者：Chu, Angus C.; Cozzi, Guido
作者单位：University of Liverpool; University of St Gallen
摘要：R&D investment has well-known liquidity problems, with potentially important consequences. In this study, we analyze the effects of monetary policy on economic growth and social welfare in a Schumpeterian growth model with cash-in-advance (CIA) constraints on R&D investment, consumption, and manufacturing. Our main results can be summarized as follows. Under the CIA constraints on R&D and consumption (the CIA constraint on manufacturing), an increase in the nominal interest rate decreases (inc...
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作者：Djajic, Slobodan
摘要：This article studies the implications of temporary emigration for the welfare of a source country. The framework is one of general equilibrium, where the economy's stocks of both capital and labor are endogenously determined by the saving and migration decisions of optimizing agents. Simulations of the model suggest that for realistic values of the parameters, welfare of nonmigrants of the source country is maximized when the migrants are employed abroad for a period in the range of roughly 8-...
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作者：Groeger, Joachim R.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：This article studies repeated entry and bidding decisions in construction procurement auctions. I find evidence in the data that suggests the presence of significant cost savings from entering contracts of the same type. I estimate a dynamic auction model to measure the gains to experience for bidders. I allow for endogenous entry, synergies in entry, and unobserved auction heterogeneity. I find that a bidder can halve entry costs by focusing on specific contract types. An auctioneer can incre...
