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作者：Garratt, Anthony; Koop, Gary; Vahey, Shaun P.
作者单位：University of London; Birkbeck University London; University of Strathclyde
摘要：A recent revision to the preliminary measurement of GDP(E) growth for 2003Q2 caused considerable press attention, provoked a public enquiry and prompted a number of reforms to UK statistical reporting procedures. In this article, we compute the probability of 'substantial revisions' that are greater (in absolute value) than the controversial 2003 revision. The predictive densities are derived from Bayesian model averaging over a wide set of forecasting models including linear, structural break...
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作者：Bjerk, David
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College
摘要：I show that when two groups differ in (i) their average skill level, (ii) the precision with which they can signal their skill prior to entering the labour market, and/or (iii) the frequency with which they have the opportunity to signal their skill prior to entering the labour market, then even if firms become increasingly informed regarding each worker's skill over time, equally skilled workers from different groups will have different likelihoods of making it to top jobs in the economy, eve...
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作者：Meade, Ellen E.; Stasavage, David
作者单位：American University; New York University
摘要：Transparency in committee decision making may have clear benefits by making members more accountable to outside observers. We consider one potential cost: the possibility that publishing records of deliberations will make members more reluctant to offer dissenting opinions. We construct a model that compares incentives for members with 'career concerns' to voice dissent when deliberations occur in public or in private. We test the model using an original dataset based on deliberations of the F...
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作者：Roth, Alvin E.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：This article discusses some things we have learned about markets, in the process of designing marketplaces to fix market failures. To work well, marketplaces have to provide thickness, i.e. they need to attract a large enough proportion of the potential participants in the market; they have to overcome the congestion that thickness can bring, by making it possible to consider enough alternative transactions to arrive at good ones; and they need to make it safe and sufficiently simple to partic...
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作者：Paull, Gillian
摘要：The prevalence of women in part-time work continues to be a distinguishing feature of female employment in Britain. Using data from the BHPS, this article analyses the evolution of work hours for women and men during family formation and development. A substantial movement towards part-time work for women occurs with the first birth and continues steadily for ten years. The gender gap in hours subsequently diminishes but persists even after children have grown up. Births have little impact on ...
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作者：Shy, Oz; Stenbacka, Rune
作者单位：University of Haifa
摘要：We analyse retail industries with two-stage competition in opening hours and prices. We explore the effects of consumers' shopping time flexibility by comparing bi-directional consumers with forward- or backward-oriented consumers, who can either postpone or advance their shopping, but not both. We demonstrate that retailers with longer opening hours charge higher prices and that opening hour differentiation softens price competition. We show that competition does not create incentives for ret...
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作者：Cornand, Camille; Heinemann, Frank
作者单位：Universites de Strasbourg Etablissements Associes; Universite de Strasbourg; Technical University of Berlin
摘要：Financial markets and macroeconomic environments are often characterised by positive externalities. In these environments, transparency may reduce expected welfare: public announcements serve as focal points for higher-order beliefs and affect agents' behaviour more than justified by their informational contents. Some scholars conclude that reducing public signals' precision or entirely withholding information may improve welfare. This article shows that public information should always be pro...
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作者：Maurer, Juergen; Meier, Andre
作者单位：University of Mannheim; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Recent theoretical contributions have suggested peer-group effects as a potential explanation for several puzzles in macroeconomics but their empirical relevance for intertemporal consumption choice is an open question. We derive an extension of the standard life-cycle model that allows for consumption externalities. In this framework, we propose a social multiplier approach to distinguish true externalities from merely correlated effects. Estimating our model using US panel data, we find stro...
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作者：Strulik, Holger
作者单位：Leibniz University Hannover
摘要：This article investigates how the existence of non-cooperative social groups that appropriate resources either peacefully or through contest affects economic growth when property rights are unenforceable. For symmetric groups it shows that economic growth is generated only in peaceful societies. For the case of asymmetric groups rebel-equilibria are investigated in which a large majority behaves peacefully although challenged by an aggressive minority. The article explains how conflict intensi...
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作者：Gai, Prasanna; Kapadia, Sujit; Millard, Stephen; Perez, Ander
作者单位：Australian National University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We present a general equilibrium model of intermediation designed to capture some of the key features of the modern financial system. The model incorporates financial constraints and state-contingent contracts, and contains a clearly defined pecuniary externality associated with asset fire sales during periods of stress. If a sufficiently severe shock occurs during a credit expansion, this externality is capable of generating a systemic financial crisis that may be self-fulfilling. Our model s...
