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作者：Tetlock, Philip E.; Mellers, Barbara A.; Scoblic, J. Peter
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Harvard University
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作者：Meng, Kyle C.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper develops a method for forecasting the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of climate policy using three features of the failed Waxman-Markey bill. First, the MAC is revealed by the price of traded permits. Second, the permit price is estimated using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) comparing stock returns of firms on either side of the policy's free permit cutoff rule. Third, because Waxman-Markey was never implemented, I extend the RDD approach to incorporate prediction market pri...
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作者：Dahl, Gordon B.; Lochner, Lance
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Dahl and Lochner (2012) provides some of the first causal evidence of the effects of family income on child achievement using changes in the Earned Income Tax Credit. Unfortunately, a coding error in the creation of total family income affects the first stage estimates and inflates the instrumental variable (IV) estimates. Importantly, it does not affect the reduced- form estimates or alter statistical significance of the IV estimates. This response shows that correcting this error does not al...
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作者：Fang, Hanming; Gong, Qing
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We propose a novel and easy-to-implement approach to detect potential overbilling based on the hours worked implied by the service codes which physicians submit to Medicare. Using the Medicare Part B Fee-for-Service (FFS) Physician Utilization and Payment Data in 2012 and 2013 released by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, we construct estimates for physicians' hours spent on Medicare beneficiaries. We find that about 2,300 physicians, representing about 3 percent of those with 20...
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作者：Egan, Mark; Hortacsu, Ali; Matvos, Gregor
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：We develop a structural empirical model of the US banking sector. Insured depositors and run-prone uninsured depositors choose between differentiated banks. Banks compete for deposits and endogenously default. The estimated demand for uninsured deposits declines with banks' financial distress, which is not the case for insured deposits. We calibrate the supply side of the model. The calibrated model possesses multiple equilibria with bank-run features, suggesting that banks can be very fragile...
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作者：Cruz, Cesi; Labonne, Julien; Querubin, Pablo
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Oxford; New York University
摘要：We demonstrate the importance of politician social networks for electoral outcomes. Using large-scale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages in the Philippines, we show that candidates for public office are disproportionately drawn from more central families and family network centrality contributes to higher vote shares during the elections. Consistent with our theory of political intermediation, we present evidence that family network centrality facilitat...
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作者：Belenzon, Sharon; Chatterji, Aaron K.; Daley, Brendan
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：We demonstrate that eponymy-firms being named after their owners-is linked to superior firm performance, but is relatively uncommon (about 19 percent of firms in our data). We propose an explanation based on eponymy creating an association between the entrepreneur and her firm that increases the reputational benefits/costs of successful/unsuccessful outcomes. We develop a corresponding signaling model, which further predicts that these effects will be stronger for entrepreneurs with rarer name...
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作者：Bosshardt, William; Walstad, William B.
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida Atlantic University; University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln
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作者：Mathew, Sarah
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
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作者：Missirian, Anouch; Schlenker, Wolfram
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
