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作者：Baugh, Brian; Ben-David, Itzhak; Park, Hoonsuk; Parker, Jonathan A.
作者单位：University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Melbourne; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Analyzing account-level data from an account aggregator, we find that households increase consumption when they receive expected tax refunds, as if they face liquidity constraints. However, these same households smooth consumption when making payments in other years, primarily by transferring funds among liquid accounts. Even households carrying credit card debt smooth consumption when making payments, and even highly liquid households spend out of refunds. This behavior is inconsistent with p...
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作者：Ulate, Mauricio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：After the Great Recession several central banks started setting negative nominal interest rates in an expansionary attempt, but the effectiveness of this measure remains unclear. Negative rates can stimulate the economy by lowering the rates that commercial banks charge on loans, but they can also erode bank profitability by squeezing deposit spreads. This paper studies the effects of negative rates in a new DSGE model where banks intermediate the transmission of monetary policy. I use hank-le...
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作者：Zou, Eric Yongchen
作者单位：University of Oregon; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Intermittent monitoring of environmental standards may induce strategic changes in polluting activities. This paper documents local strategic responses to a cyclical, once-every-six-day air quality monitoring schedule under the federal Clean Air Act. Using satellite data of monitored areas, I show that air quality is significantly worse on unmonitored days. This effect is explained by short-term suppression of pollution on monitored days, especially during high-pollution periods when the city'...
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作者：Lowes, Sara; Montero, Eduardo
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Between 1921 and 1956, French colonial governments organized medical campaigns to treat and prevent sleeping sickness. Villagers were forcibly examined and injected with medications with severe, sometimes fatal, side effects. We digitized 30 years of archival records to document the locations of campaign visits at a granular geographic level for five central African countries. We find that greater campaign exposure reduces vaccination rates and trust in medicine, as measured by willingness to ...
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作者：Winberry, Thomas
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I study the aggregate implications of micro-level lumpy investment in a model consistent with the empirical dynamics of the real interest rate. The elasticity of aggregate investment with respect to shocks is procyclical because more firms are likely to make an extensive margin investment in expansions than in recessions. Matching the dynamics of the real interest rate is key to generating this result because it disciplines the interest-elasticity of investment and avoids counterfactual behavi...
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作者：Brodeur, Abel; Cook, Nikolai; Heyes, Anthony
作者单位：University of Ottawa
摘要：The credibility revolution in economics has promoted causal identification using randomized control trials (RCT), difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV) and regression discontinuity design (RDD). Applying multiple approaches to over 21,000 hypothesis tests published in 25 leading economics journals, we find that the extent of p-hacking and publication bias varies greatly by method. IV (and to a lesser extent DID) are particularly problematic. We find no evidence that (i) ...
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作者：Aguiar, Mark; Amador, Manuel
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：We establish that creditor beliefs regarding future borrowing can be self-fulfilling, leading to multiple equilibria with markedly different debt accumulation patterns. We characterize such indeterminacy in the Eaton-Gersovitz sovereign debt model augmented with long maturity bonds. Two necessary conditions for the multiplicity are (i) the government is more impatient than foreign creditors, and (ii) there are deadweight losses from default. The multiplicity is dynamic and stems from the self-...
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作者：Attanasio, Orazio; Cattan, Sarah; Fitzsimons, Emla; Meghir, Costas; Rubio-Codina, Marta
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of London; University College London; UCL Institute of Education; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：We examine the channels through which a randomized early childhood intervention in Colombia led to significant gains in cognitive and socio-emotional skills among a sample of disadvantaged children aged 12 to 24 months at baseline. We estimate the determinants of parents' material and time investments in these children and evaluate the impact of the treatment on such investments. We then estimate the production functions for cognitive and socio-emotional skills. The effects of the program can ...
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作者：Bursztyn, Leonardo; Gonzalez, Alessandra L.; Yanagizawa-Drott, David
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Zurich
摘要：We show that the vast majority of young married men in Saudi Arabia privately support women working outside the home (WWOH) and substantially underestimate support by other similar men. Correcting these beliefs increases men's (costly) willingness to help their wives search for jobs. Months later, wives of men whose beliefs were corrected are more likely to have applied and interviewed for a job outside the home. In a recruitment experiment with a local company, randomly informing women about ...
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作者：Ravid, Doron
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：A seller bargains with a rationally inattentive buyer (Sims 2003) over a good of random quality. After observing quality, the seller makes a take-it-or-leave-it offer. The buyer pays attention to the seller's product and offer at a cost proportional to expected entropy reduction. Because attention is free off-path, multiple equilibria emerge, many of which are efficient. A trembling-hand-like refinement (Selten 1975) rules out efficiency, delivering complete disagreement when attention is expe...
