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作者：Kwon, Spencer Y.; Tang, Johnny
作者单位：Brown University; Cornell University
摘要：What characteristics of news generate over-or-underreaction? We study the asset-pricing consequences of diagnostic expectations, a model of belief formation based on the representativeness heuristic, in a setting where news events are drawn from categories with extreme distributions of fundamentals. Our model predicts greater overreaction to news belonging to categories with more extreme outliers, or tail events. We test our theory on a comprehensive database of corporate news that includes ne...
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作者：Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：This article studies the efficient allocation in an economy in which firms are connected through input-output linkages and must pay a fixed cost to produce. When economic conditions are poor, some firms might decide not to operate, thereby severing the links with their neighbours and changing the structure of the production network. Since producers benefit from having access to additional suppliers, nearby firms tend to operate, or not, together. As a result, the production network features cl...
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作者：Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone; Hansen, Lars Peter; Maccheroni, Fabio; Marinacci, Massimo
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; University of Chicago
摘要：We use decision theory to confront uncertainty that is sufficiently broad to incorporate models as approximations. We presume the existence of a featured collection of what we call structured models that have explicit substantive motivations. The decision-maker confronts uncertainty through the lens of these models, but also views these models as simplifications, and hence, as misspecified. We extend the max-min analysis under model ambiguity to incorporate the uncertainty induced by acknowled...
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作者：Helensdotter, Ronja
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Gothenburg
摘要：This paper studies the effects of the court-ordered removal of children from home on health, crime, and education. To isolate causal effects, I exploit quasi-random variation in judge assignment together with across-judge variation in the tendency to favour removal in an instrumental variable design. Using a novel data set (N=26,579) based on Swedish court documents that I transcribe and link with detailed register data, I find that court-ordered out-of-home placement has large adverse effects...
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作者：Li, Danielle; Raymond, Lindsey; Bergman, Peter
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：This article views hiring as a contextual bandit problem: to find the best workers over time, firms must balance exploitation (selecting from groups with proven track records) with exploration (selecting from under-represented groups to learn about quality). Yet modern hiring algorithms, based on supervised learning approaches, are designed solely for exploitation. Instead, we build a resume screening algorithm that values exploration by evaluating candidates according to their statistical ups...
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作者：Spiegler, Ran
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of London; University College London
摘要：When inferring causal effects from correlational data, a common practice by professional researchers but also lay people is to control for potential confounders. Inappropriate controls produce erroneous causal inferences. I model decision-makers (DMs) who use endogenous observational data to learn actions' causal effect on payoff-relevant outcomes. Different DM types use different controls. Their resulting choices affect the very correlations they learn from, thus calling for an equilibrium an...
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作者：Bai, Yan; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor; Storesletten, Kjetil
作者单位：University of Rochester; University of Pennsylvania; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：We provide a macroeconomic theory where demand for goods has a productive role. A search friction prevents perfect matching between producers and potential customers. Larger demand induces more search, which, in turn, increases GDP and measured total factor productivity (TFP). We embed the product-market friction in a standard neoclassical model and estimate it using Bayesian techniques. Business cycles are driven by preference shocks, true technology shocks, and investment-specific shocks. Pr...
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作者：House, Christopher L.; Proebsting, Christian; Tesar, Linda L.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; KU Leuven
摘要：Unemployment differentials are greater between countries in the euro area than between U.S. states. In both regions, net migration responds to unemployment differentials, though the response is smaller in the euro area compared to the U.S. We use a multi-country DSGE model with cross-border migration to quantify Mundell's hypothesis that labour mobility could substitute for independent monetary policy in a currency union. While not as effective as independent monetary policy, increased labour ...
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作者：Jehiel, Philippe; Weber, Giacomo
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Bologna
摘要：Normal-form two-player games are categorized by players into K analogy classes so as to minimize the prediction error about the behaviour of the opponent. This results in Clustered Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibria in which strategies are analogy-based expectation equilibria given the analogy partitions and analogy partitions minimize the prediction errors given the strategies. We distinguish between environments with self-repelling analogy partitions in which some mixing over partitions is...
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作者：Pei, Harry
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：I study repeated games with anonymous random matching where players can add or remove signals from their records. The ability to manipulate records introduces monotonicity constraints on players' continuation values, under which sufficiently long-lived players will almost never cooperate. When players' expected lifespans are intermediate, their ability to sustain cooperation depends on (i) whether their actions are complements or substitutes and (ii) whether manipulation takes the form of addi...
