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作者：Athey, Susan; Chetty, Raj; Imbens, Guido W.; Kang, Hyunseung
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Stanford University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：A common challenge in estimating the impact of interventions (e.g. job training programmes, educational programmes) is that many outcomes of interest (e.g. lifetime earnings or other labour market outcomes) are observed with a long delay. In biomedical settings, this is often addressed by using short-term outcomes as so-called surrogates for the outcome of interest, e.g. tumour size as a surrogate for mortality in cancer studies. We build on this literature by combining multiple, possibly qual...
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作者：Agarwal, Nikhil; Somaini, Paulo
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：Consumer choices are constrained in many markets due to either supply-side rationing or information frictions. Examples include matching markets for schools and colleges; entry-level labour markets; limited brand awareness and inattention in consumer markets; and selective admissions to healthcare services. We analyse a general random utility model for consumer preferences that allows for endogenous characteristics and a reduced-form choice-set formation rule that can be derived from models of...
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作者：Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Hacioglu-Hoke, Sinem; Bluwstein, Kristina
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Bank of England
摘要：We exploit information in patent applications to construct an instrumental variable for the identification of technology news shocks that relaxes all the identifying assumptions traditionally used in the literature. The instrument recovers news shocks that have no effect on aggregate productivity in the short-run, but are a significant driver of its trend component. The shock prompts a broad-based expansion in anticipation of the future increase in total factor productivity (TFP), with output,...
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作者：Matranga, Andrea; Natkhov, Timur
作者单位：University of Turin; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
摘要：This article examines the emergence of coercive labour institutions using the case of serfdom in early modern Russia. We argue that serfdom consolidated under the pressure of landholding military elites who gained political influence due to the prolonged struggle with steppe nomads. To contain nomadic raids, the Russian state erected defence lines on the southern frontier, and granted land in the area to soldiers in charge of its defence. The soldiers could not farm while on defence duty, nor ...
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作者：Abraham, Arpad; Carceles-Poveda, Eva; Liu, Yan; Marimon, Ramon
作者单位：University of Bristol; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; Sun Yat Sen University; European University Institute; Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a model of a Financial Stability Fund (the Fund henceforth) for a union of sovereign countries. By design, the contract prevents country defaults, as well as undesired expected losses, which in a union translate into excessive risk mutualizations. A participant country has greater ability to borrow and share risks than using sovereign debt financing. The Fund contract also provides better incentives for the country to reduce endogenous risks. These efficiency gains arise from the ab...
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作者：Angelova, Victoria; Dobbie, Will; Yang, Crystal S.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Human decision-makers frequently override the recommendations generated by predictive algorithms, but it is unclear whether these discretionary overrides add valuable private information or reintroduce human biases and mistakes. We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure the impact of human discretion over an algorithm on the accuracy of decisions, even when the outcome of interest is only selectively observed, in the context of bail decisions. We find that 90% of the judges in our set...
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作者：Bjorkegren, Daniel; Blumenstock, Joshua E.; Knight, Samsun
作者单位：Columbia University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Toronto
摘要：When a policy prioritizes one person over another, is it because they benefit more, or because they are preferred? This paper develops a method to uncover the values consistent with observed allocation decisions. We estimate how much each person benefits from an intervention, and then reconcile the allocation with (i) the welfare weights assigned to different people; (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects of the intervention; and (iii) weights on different outcomes. We demonstrate this approach ...
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作者：Bigio, Saki; Shi, Liyan
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study repurchase options (repo contracts) in a competitive asset market with adverse selection. Gains from trade emerge from a liquidity need, but private information about asset quality prevents the full realization of trades. In equilibrium, a single repo contract pools all assets. The embedded repurchase option mitigates adverse selection by improving the volume of trades relative to outright sales. However, liquidity provision can be inefficiently low as lenders compete to attract high-...
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作者：Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Murphy, Daniel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Virginia
摘要：We exploit a panel of city-level data with rich demographic information to estimate the distributional effects of Department of Defense spending and its effects on a range of social outcomes. The income and employment generated by defence spending accrue predominantly to households without a bachelor's degree. These households as well as Black and Hispanic households tend to disproportionately benefit from this spending. Defence spending also promotes a range of beneficial social outcomes that...
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作者：Han, Lu; Ngai, L. Rachel; Sheedy, Kevin D.
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Using sales and leasing data, this paper finds three novel effects of a higher property transaction tax: higher buy-to-rent transactions alongside lower buy-to-own transactions despite both being taxed, a lower sales-to-leases ratio, and a lower price-to-rent ratio. This paper explains these facts by developing a search model with entry of investors and households, households choosing to own or rent in the presence of credit frictions, and homeowners deciding when to move house. A higher trans...
