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作者：Babii, Andrii; Chen, Xi; Ghysels, Eric; Kumar, Rohit
作者单位：Indian Institute of Technology System (IIT System); Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) - Delhi
摘要：We study the binary choice problem in a data-rich environment with asymmetric loss functions. The econometrics literature covers nonparametric binary choice problems but does not offer computationally attractive solutions in data-rich environments. The machine learning literature has many algorithms but is focused mostly on loss functions that are independent of covariates. We show that theoretically valid decisions on binary outcomes with general loss functions can be achieved via a very simp...
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作者：Becker, Christoph K.; Duersch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.
作者单位：Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; University of Mannheim
摘要：In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to a response scale with pre-specified ranges of inflation. In two large-scale experiments, one conducted in the US and one in Germany, we show how the specifics of the response scale determine the results: Shifting, compressing, or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed, and expanded forecasts. Quantifying this effect using the scale most widely used among central banks, we find that mean forecast, uncertainty, and ...
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作者：Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq; Vernot, Corey; Kharel, Arjun
作者单位：Yale University; Yale University; University of Chicago
摘要：Seasonal migration is a common strategy to mitigate rural seasonal deprivation, but migrants need to remit money during the lean season to family members facing food shortages. We observe counterintuitively low remittances in rural Nepal during periods of seasonal hunger, and migrants return with remittances later during harvest when food is relatively abundant. To indirectly overcome this apparent constraint in remittance timing, we provide a $90 consumption loan to randomly selected rural ho...
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作者：Kartal, Melis; Mueller, Wieland
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business; University of Vienna; University of Vienna; Tilburg University; Tilburg University; Corvinus University Budapest
摘要：The theory of infinitely repeated games may lack predictive power due to its insensitivity to, for example, changes in some game parameters, the timing of players' moves, and communication possibilities. We propose a new approach by studying an infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game and its variants where preferences for cooperation are heterogeneous, and strategic risk arises from incomplete information about opponents' preferences. Our model generates a rich set of comparative static pr...
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作者：van den Bremer, Ton; Hambel, Christoph; van der Ploeg, Frederick
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Delft University of Technology; Tilburg University; University of Oxford; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：An easy-to-interpret rule for the optimal risk-adjusted social cost of carbon is derived using perturbation analysis. This rule internalizes the adverse effects of global warming on the risk of recurring climate-related disasters, the risk of irreversible cascading climate tipping points, and the usual effect on total factor productivity. It and its three components approximate the true numerical optimum well, especially if the small parameters (i.e., the share of damages in GDP, the sensitivi...
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作者：Chan, Joshua C. C.; Matthes, Christian; Yu, Xuewen
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; University of Notre Dame; Fudan University
摘要：Large VARs are increasingly used in structural analysis as a unified framework to study the impacts of multiple structural shocks simultaneously. However, the concurrent identification of multiple shocks using sign and ranking restrictions poses significant practical challenges to the point where existing algorithms cannot be used with such large VARs. To address this, we introduce a new numerically efficient algorithm that facilitates the estimation of impulse responses and related measures i...
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作者：Carroll, Christopher D.; Crawley, Edmund; Du, William; Frankovic, Ivan; Tretvoll, Hakon
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Deutsche Bundesbank; Statistics Norway; BI Norwegian Business School; BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：Using a heterogeneous agent model calibrated to match spending dynamics over four years following an income shock (Fagereng, Holm, and Natvik (2021)), we assess the effectiveness of three fiscal stimulus policies implemented during recent recessions. Unemployment insurance (UI) extensions are the bang for the buck winner when the metric is effectiveness in boosting utility. Stimulus checks are second-best and have two advantages (over UI): they arrive faster, and are scalable. A temporary (two...
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作者：Beare, Brendan K.; Franchi, Massimo; Howlett, Phil
作者单位：University of Sydney; Sapienza University Rome; Adelaide University; University of South Australia
摘要：We provide a complete description of the set of all solutions to a vector autoregressive law of motion. Every solution is shown to be the sum of three components, each corresponding to a directed flow of time. One component flows forward from the arbitrarily distant past, one flows backward from the arbitrarily distant future, and one flows outward from time zero. The three components are obtained by applying three complementary spectral projections to the solution, these corresponding to a se...
