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作者：Babii, Andrii; Chen, Xi; Ghysels, Eric; Kumar, Rohit
作者单位：Indian Institute of Technology System (IIT System); Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) - Delhi
摘要：We study the binary choice problem in a data-rich environment with asymmetric loss functions. The econometrics literature covers nonparametric binary choice problems but does not offer computationally attractive solutions in data-rich environments. The machine learning literature has many algorithms but is focused mostly on loss functions that are independent of covariates. We show that theoretically valid decisions on binary outcomes with general loss functions can be achieved via a very simp...
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作者：Becker, Christoph K.; Duersch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.
作者单位：Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; University of Mannheim
摘要：In density forecasts, respondents are asked to assign probabilities to a response scale with pre-specified ranges of inflation. In two large-scale experiments, one conducted in the US and one in Germany, we show how the specifics of the response scale determine the results: Shifting, compressing, or expanding the scale leads to shifted, compressed, and expanded forecasts. Quantifying this effect using the scale most widely used among central banks, we find that mean forecast, uncertainty, and ...
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作者：Ederer, Tim
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：I build a model of many-to-one matching with nontransferable utility involving many agents on both sides of the market, for example, workers and firms. Under parsimonious assumptions on preferences and assuming that matches are stable, I provide a tractable asymptotic characterization of the joint distribution of match characteristics. I find that one can identify the joint surplus of a match, but cannot separately identify workers' and firms' preferences from data on realized matches. Within-...
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作者：Santavirta, Torsten; Sarzosa, Miguel
作者单位：University of Helsinki; Stockholm University; Uppsala University; Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：This study uses sociometric data to show that social connections in the classroom shape the diffusion of the negative externalities on cognitive achievement generated by abused and neglected peers. We find the strongest negative effects for students who are socially closest to the abused and neglected peer. The fade-out rate of the negative externality is such that being three peers away from an abused and neglected peer is equivalent to having no such peers. Although the inverse effect-distan...
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作者：Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq; Vernot, Corey; Kharel, Arjun
作者单位：Yale University; Yale University; University of Chicago
摘要：Seasonal migration is a common strategy to mitigate rural seasonal deprivation, but migrants need to remit money during the lean season to family members facing food shortages. We observe counterintuitively low remittances in rural Nepal during periods of seasonal hunger, and migrants return with remittances later during harvest when food is relatively abundant. To indirectly overcome this apparent constraint in remittance timing, we provide a $90 consumption loan to randomly selected rural ho...
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作者：Auerbach, Eric; Guo, Hongchang; Tabord-Meehan, Max
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Toronto
摘要：We propose a new nonparametric modeling framework for causal inference when outcomes depend on how agents are linked in a social or economic network. Such network interference describes a large literature on treatment spillovers, social interactions, social learning, information diffusion, disease and financial contagion, social capital formation, and more. Our approach works by first characterizing how an agent is linked in the network using the configuration of other agents and connections n...
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作者：Chen, Been-Lon; Liang, Fei-Chi
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan; National Chengchi University
摘要：This paper studies income inequality and optimal taxation policies in a talent-to-task assignment model of self-selection. Our model considers relative capital-skill complementarities across tasks, leading to the polarization of capital and technology by task complexity, which in turn drives the polarization of job and wage growth by talent levels. Regarding optimal tax policy, the wage compression channel remains effective through the trickle-down effect of subsidizing high-wage earners and t...
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作者：Kartal, Melis; Mueller, Wieland
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business; University of Vienna; University of Vienna; Tilburg University; Tilburg University; Corvinus University Budapest
摘要：The theory of infinitely repeated games may lack predictive power due to its insensitivity to, for example, changes in some game parameters, the timing of players' moves, and communication possibilities. We propose a new approach by studying an infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game and its variants where preferences for cooperation are heterogeneous, and strategic risk arises from incomplete information about opponents' preferences. Our model generates a rich set of comparative static pr...
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作者：Fernandez-villaverde, Jesus; Hull, Isaiah
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Cambridge; BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：We introduce novel algorithms for solving dynamic programming problems in economics on a quantum annealer, a specialized quantum computer used for combinatorial optimization. Quantum annealers begin in a superposition of all states and generate candidate global solutions in milliseconds, regardless of problem size. In contrast to existing methods, those developed in this paper (1) recover value and policy functions, (2) avoid fundamental scaling bottlenecks, and (3) are already implementable f...
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作者：van den Bremer, Ton; Hambel, Christoph; van der Ploeg, Frederick
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Delft University of Technology; Tilburg University; University of Oxford; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：An easy-to-interpret rule for the optimal risk-adjusted social cost of carbon is derived using perturbation analysis. This rule internalizes the adverse effects of global warming on the risk of recurring climate-related disasters, the risk of irreversible cascading climate tipping points, and the usual effect on total factor productivity. It and its three components approximate the true numerical optimum well, especially if the small parameters (i.e., the share of damages in GDP, the sensitivi...
