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作者：Brookmeyer, R; Blades, N
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; Jackson Laboratory
摘要：In the fall of 2001 an outbreak of inhalational anthrax occurred in the United States that was the result of bioterrorism. Letters contaminated with anthrax spores were sent through the postal system. In response to the outbreak, public health officials treated over 10,000 persons with antibiotic prophylaxis in the hopes of preventing further morbidity and mortality. No persons receiving the antibiotics subsequently developed disease. The question arises as to how many cases of disease may act...
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作者：Claeskens, G; Hjort, NL
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of Oslo
摘要：A variety of model selection criteria have been developed, of general and specific types. Most of these aim at selecting a single model with good overall properties, for example, formulated via average prediction quality or shortest estimated overall distance to the true model. The Akaike, the Bayesian, and the deviance information criteria, along with many suitable variations, are examples of such methods. These methods are not concerned, however, with the actual use of the selected model, wh...
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作者：Garratt, A; Lee, K; Pesaran, MH; Shin, Y
作者单位：University of Leicester; University of Cambridge; University of Edinburgh
摘要：We argue that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a straightforward manner that is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts obtained using a small benchmark macroeconometric model and a number of other alternatives are presented and evaluated using recursive forecasts generated over the period 1999q1-2001q1. Out-of-sample probability forecasts of inflation and output gro...
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作者：Ye, ZS; Weiss, RE
作者单位：Eli Lilly; Lilly Research Laboratories; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Dimension reduction in a regression analysis of response y given a p-dimensional vector of predictors x reduces the dimension of x by replacing it with a lower-dimensional linear combination beta'x of the x's without specifying a parametric model and without loss of information about the conditional distribution of y given x. We unify three existing methods, sliced inverse regression (SIR), sliced average variance estimate (SAVE), and principal Hessian directions (pHd), into a larger class of ...
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作者：Tsodikov, AD; Ibrahim, JG; Yakovlev, AY
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Rochester; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：This article considers the utility of the bounded cumulative hazard model in cure rate estimation, which is an appealing alternative to the widely used two-component mixture model. This approach has the following distinct advantages: (1) It allows for a natural way to extend the proportional hazards regression model, leading to a wide class of extended hazard regression models. (2) In some settings the model can be interpreted in terms of biologically meaningful parameters. (3) The model struc...
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作者：Ghosh-Dastidar, B; Schafer, JL
作者单位：RAND Corporation; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：Multiple imputation replaces an incomplete dataset with m > 1 simulated complete versions that are analyzed separately by standard methods. We present a natural extension of multiple imputation for handling the dual problems of nonresponse and response error. This extension, which we call multiple edit/multiple imputation (MEMI), replaces an observed dataset containing missing values and errors with m > 1 simulated versions of the ideal dataset that is complete and error-free. These ideal data...
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作者：Hössjer, O
作者单位：Stockholm University
摘要：The aim of linkage analysis is to map the position of a gene contributing to an inheritable disease. The statistical model contains the disease allele frequency and penetrance parameters. Here I investigate the inheritance distribution, that is, the conditional distribution of the inheritance vector given phenotypes at the disease locus. Based on this, the likelihood and likelihood score function of Whittemore can be defined. As a result, a general semiparametric methodology of choosing score ...
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作者：Johns, CJ; Nychka, D; Kittel, TGF; Daly, C
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Denver; National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - USA; Oregon State University
摘要：Historical records of weather, such as monthly precipitation and temperatures from the last century, are an invaluable database to use in studying changes and variability in climate. These data also provide the starting point for understanding and modeling the relationship among climate, ecological processes, and human activities. However, these data are observed irregularly over space and time. The basic statistical problem is to create a complete data record that is consistent with the obser...
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作者：Shen, XT; Dougherty, DP
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
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作者：Raftery, AE; Zheng, YY
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
