-
作者：Harris, Trevor; Li, Bo; Steiger, Nathan J.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Narisetty, Naveen; Tucker, J. Derek
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Columbia University; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Sandia National Laboratories
摘要：Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) attempt to estimate spatiotemporal fields of climate variables in the past using climate proxies such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. Data assimilation (DA) methods are a recent and promising new means of deriving CFRs that optimally fuse climate proxies with climate model output. Despite the growing application of DA-based CFRs, little is understood about how much the assimilated proxies change the statistical properties of the climate model data. To...
-
作者：Bates, Stephen; Candes, Emmanuel; Janson, Lucas; Wang, Wenshuo
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; Harvard University
摘要：Model-X knockoffs is a wrapper that transforms essentially any feature importance measure into a variable selection algorithm, which discovers true effects while rigorously controlling the expected fraction of false positives. A frequently discussed challenge to apply this method is to construct knockoff variables, which are synthetic variables obeying a crucial exchangeability property with the explanatory variables under study. This article introduces techniques for knockoff generation in gr...
-
作者：Fasiolo, Matteo; Wood, Simon N.; Zaffran, Margaux; Nedellec, Raphael; Goude, Yannig
作者单位：University of Bristol; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSTA Paris; Electricite de France (EDF)
摘要：We propose a novel framework for fitting additive quantile regression models, which provides well-calibrated inference about the conditional quantiles and fast automatic estimation of the smoothing parameters, for model structures as diverse as those usable with distributional generalized additive models, while maintaining equivalent numerical efficiency and stability. The proposed methods are at once statistically rigorous and computationally efficient, because they are based on the general b...
-
作者：Frumento, Paolo; Bottai, Matteo; Fernandez-Val, Ivan
作者单位：University of Pisa; Karolinska Institutet; Boston University
摘要：In ordinary quantile regression, quantiles of different order are estimated one at a time. An alternative approach, which is referred to as quantile regression coefficients modeling (qrcm), is to model quantile regression coefficients as parametric functions of the order of the quantile. In this article, we describe how the qrcm paradigm can be applied to longitudinal data. We introduce a two-level quantile function, in which two different quantile regression models are used to describe the (c...
-
作者：Guo, Wenchuan; Zhou, Xiao-Hua; Ma, Shujie
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Riverside; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Peking University; Peking University
摘要：With a large number of baseline covariates, we propose a new semiparametric modeling strategy for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation and individualized treatment selection, which are two major goals in personalized medicine. We achieve the first goal through estimating a covariate-specific treatment effect (CSTE) curve modeled as an unknown function of a weighted linear combination of all baseline covariates. The weight or the coefficient for each covariate is estimated by fitting a spa...
-
作者：Cui, Yifan; Tchetgen, Eric Tchetgen
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
-
作者：Zhang, Cheng; Dinh, Vu; Matsen, Frederick A.
作者单位：Peking University; Peking University; University of Delaware; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center
摘要：Phylogenetic tree inference using deep DNA sequencing is reshaping our understanding of rapidly evolving systems, such as the within-host battle between viruses and the immune system. Densely sampled phylogenetic trees can contain special features, including sampled ancestors in which we sequence a genotype along with its direct descendants, and polytomies in which multiple descendants arise simultaneously. These features are apparent after identifying zero-length branches in the tree. However...
-
作者：Yi, Dingdong; Ning, Shaoyang; Chang, Chia-Jung; Kou, S. C.
作者单位：Williams College; National University of Singapore; Harvard University
摘要：Big data generated from the Internet offer great potential for predictive analysis. Here we focus on using online users' Internet search data to forecast unemployment initial claims weeks into the future, which provides timely insights into the direction of the economy. To this end, we present a novel method Penalized Regression with Inferred Seasonality Module (PRISM), which uses publicly available online search data from Google. PRISM is a semiparametric method, motivated by a general state-...
-
作者：Park, Junhyung; Schoenberg, Frederic Paik; Bertozzi, Andrea L.; Brantingham, P. Jeffrey
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Reported gang-related violent crimes in Los Angeles, California, from 1/1/14 to 12/31/17 are modeled using spatial-temporal marked Hawkes point processes with covariates. We propose an algorithm to estimate the spatial-temporally varying background rate nonparametrically as a function of demographic covariates. Kernel smoothing and generalized additive models are used in an attempt to model the background rate as closely as possible in an effort to differentiate inhomogeneity in the background...
-
作者：Liao, Peng; Klasnja, Predrag; Murphy, Susan
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Harvard University
摘要：Due to the recent advancements in wearables and sensing technology, health scientists are increasingly developing mobile health (mHealth) interventions. In mHealth interventions, mobile devices are used to deliver treatment to individuals as they go about their daily lives. These treatments are generally designed to impact a near time, proximal outcome such as stress or physical activity. The mHealth intervention policies, often called just-in-time adaptive interventions, are decision rules th...
