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作者：Davis, Richard A.; Fokianos, Konstantinos; Holan, Scott H.; Joe, Harry; Livsey, James; Lund, Robert; Pipiras, Vladas; Ravishanker, Nalini
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Cyprus; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia; University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of Connecticut
摘要：A growing interest in non-Gaussian time series, particularly in series comprised of nonnegative integers (counts), is taking place in today's statistics literature. Count series naturally arise in fields, such as agriculture, economics, epidemiology, finance, geology, meteorology, and sports. Unlike stationary Gaussian series where autoregressive moving-averages are the primary modeling vehicle, no single class of models dominates the count landscape. As such, the literature has evolved somewh...
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作者：Murray, Jared S.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：We introduce Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) for log-linear models including multinomial logistic regression and count regression with zero-inflation and overdispersion. BART has been applied to nonparametric mean regression and binary classification problems in a range of settings. However, existing applications of BART have been mostly limited to models for Gaussian data, either observed or latent. This is primarily because efficient MCMC algorithms are available for Gaussian likel...
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作者：Chen, Haoyu; Lu, Wenbin; Song, Rui
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作者：Zhang, Bo; Weiss, Jordan; Small, Dylan S.; Zhao, Qingyuan
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; University of Cambridge
摘要：It is common to compare individualized treatment rules based on the value function, which is the expected potential outcome under the treatment rule. Although the value function is not point-identified when there is unmeasured confounding, it still defines a partial order among the treatment rules under Rosenbaum's sensitivity analysis model. We first consider how to compare two treatment rules with unmeasured confounding in the single-decision setting and then use this pairwise test to rank m...
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作者：Ben Taieb, Souhaib; Taylor, James W.; Hyndman, Rob J.
作者单位：University of Mons; University of Oxford; Monash University
摘要：Decisions regarding the supply of electricity across a power grid must take into consideration the inherent uncertainty in demand. Optimal decision-making requires probabilistic forecasts for demand in a hierarchy with various levels of aggregation, such as substations, cities, and regions. The forecasts should be coherent in the sense that the forecast of the aggregated series should equal the sum of the forecasts of the corresponding disaggregated series. Coherency is essential, since the al...
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作者：Kallus, Nathan
作者单位：Cornell University; Cornell University
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作者：Kosorok, Michael R.; Laber, Eric B.; Small, Dylan S.; Zeng, Donglin
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; North Carolina State University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We introduce the Theory and Methods Special Issue on Precision Medicine and Individualized Policy Discovery. The issue consists of four discussion papers, grouped into two pairs, and sixteen regular research papers that cover many important lines of research on data-driven decision making. We hope that the many provocative and original ideas presented herein will inspire further work and development in precision medicine and personalization.
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作者：Lukemire, Joshua; Kundu, Suprateek; Pagnoni, Giuseppe; Guo, Ying
作者单位：Emory University; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia
摘要：Investigating the similarity and changes in brain networks under different mental conditions has become increasingly important in neuroscience research. A standard separate estimation strategy fails to pool information across networks and hence has reduced estimation accuracy and power to detect between-network differences. Motivated by an fMRI Stroop task experiment that involves multiple related tasks, we develop an integrative Bayesian approach for jointly modeling multiple brain networks t...
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作者：Sugasawa, Shonosuke
作者单位：University of Tokyo
摘要：Clustered data are ubiquitous in a variety of scientific fields. In this article, we propose a flexible and interpretable modeling approach, called grouped heterogeneous mixture modeling, for clustered data, which models cluster-wise conditional distributions by mixtures of latent conditional distributions common to all the clusters. In the model, we assume that clusters are divided into a finite number of groups and mixing proportions are the same within the same group. We provide a simple ge...
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作者：Shaikh, Azeem M.; Toulis, Panos
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：This article considers the problem of inference in observational studies with time-varying adoption of treatment. In addition to an unconfoundedness assumption that the potential outcomes are independent of the times at which units adopt treatment conditional on the units' observed characteristics, our analysis assumes that the time at which each unit adopts treatment follows a Cox proportional hazards model. This assumption permits the time at which each unit adopts treatment to depend on the...
