-
作者：Porter, Michael D.; White, Gentry
作者单位：University of Queensland
摘要：A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle ...
-
作者：Wei, Peng; Pan, Wei
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Health Science Center Houston; University of Texas School Public Health; University of Texas System; University of Texas Health Science Center Houston; University of Texas School Public Health; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：We consider integrative modeling of multiple gene networks and diverse genomic data, including protein-DNA binding, gene expression and DNA sequence data, to accurately identify the regulatory target genes of a transcription factor (TF). Rather than treating all the genes equally and independently a priori in existing joint modeling approaches, we incorporate the biological prior knowledge that neighboring genes on a gene network tend to be (or not to be) regulated together by a TF. A key cont...
-
作者：Potter, Gail E.; Handcock, Mark S.; Longini, Ira M., Jr.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
摘要：Many epidemic models approximate social contact behavior by assuming random mixing within mixing groups (e. g., homes, schools and work-places). The effect of more realistic social network structure on estimates of epidemic parameters is an open area of exploration. We develop a detailed statistical model to estimate the social contact network within a high school using friendship network data and a survey of contact behavior. Our contact network model includes classroom structure, longer dura...
-
作者：Lopes, Hedibert F.; Schmidt, Alexandra M.; Salazar, Esther; Gomez, Mariana; Achkar, Marcel
作者单位：University of Chicago; Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; Duke University; Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay; Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay; Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica
摘要：We propose a model-based vulnerability index of the population from Uruguay to vector-borne diseases. We have available measurements of a set of variables in the census tract level of the 19 Departmental capitals of Uruguay. In particular, we propose an index that combines different sources of information via a set of micro-environmental indicators and geographical location in the country. Our index is based on a new class of spatially hierarchical factor models that explicitly account for the...
-
作者：Riebler, Andrea; Held, Leonhard; Rue, Havard
作者单位：University of Zurich; Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU)
摘要：To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort effects. Adjustments for overdispersion are straightforward using additional random effects. When rates are further stratified, for example, by countries, multivariate APC models can be used, where differences of stratum-specific effects are interpretable as log...
