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作者：Tian, Tian; Cheng, Ruihua; Wei, Zhi
作者单位：New Jersey Institute of Technology; Tianjin University of Finance & Economics
摘要：Time-course experiments are commonly conducted to capture temporal changes. It is generally of interest to detect if any changes happen over time, which we define as a detection problem. If there is a change, it is informative to know when the change is, which we define as an identification problem. It is often desired to control Type I error rate at a nominal level while applying a testing procedure to detect or identify these changes. Quite a few analytic methods have been proposed. Most exi...
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作者：Zamberletti, Patrizia; Papaix, Julien; Gabriel, Edith; Opitz, Thomas
作者单位：INRAE
摘要：In agricultural landscapes the spatial distribution of cultivated and semi-natural elements strongly impacts habitat connectivity and species dynamics. To allow for landscape structural analysis and scenario generation, we here develop statistical tools for real landscapes composed of geometric elements, including 2D patches but also 1D linear elements (e.g., hedges). Utilizing the framework of discrete Markov random fields, we design generative stochastic models that combine a multiplex netwo...
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作者：Chao, Fengqing; Gerland, Patrick; Cook, Alex R.; Alkema, Leontine
作者单位：King Abdullah University of Science & Technology; National University of Singapore; National University of Singapore; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst
摘要：The sex ratio at birth (SRB) is defined as the ratio of male to female live births. The SRB imbalance in parts of the world over the past several decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the coexistence of son preference, readily available technology of prenatal sex determination and fertility decline. Estimation and projection of the degree of SRB imbalance is complicated because of variability in SRB reference levels and because of the uncertainty associated with ...
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作者：Huang, Theodore; Idos, Gregory; Hong, Christine; Gruber, Stephen B.; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Braun, Danielle
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Harvard University; Harvard University Medical Affiliates; Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; City of Hope
摘要：Improving existing widely-adopted prediction models is often a more efficient and robust way toward progress than training new models from scratch. Existing models may: (a) incorporate complex mechanistic knowledge, (b) leverage proprietary information, and (c) have surmounted barriers to adoption. Compared to model training, model improvement and modification receive little attention. In this paper we propose a general approach to model improvement: we combine gradient boosting with any previ...
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作者：Hazra, Arnab; Huser, Raphael
作者单位：King Abdullah University of Science & Technology
摘要：In this work, we estimate extreme sea surface temperature (SST) hotspots, that is, high threshold exceedance regions, for the Red Sea, a vital region of high biodiversity. We analyze high-resolution satellite-derived SST data comprising daily measurements at 16,703 grid cells across the Red Sea over the period 1985-2015. We propose a semiparametric Bayesian spatial mixed-effects linear model with a flexible mean structure to capture spatially-varying trend and seasonality, while the residual s...
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作者：Johnson, Devin; Pelland, Noel; Sterling, Jeremy
作者单位：National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA
摘要：We consider an extension to discrete-space, continuous-time models for animal movement that have previously been presented in the literature. The extension from a continuous-time Markov formulation to a continuous-time semi-Markov formulation allows for the inclusion of temporally dynamic habitat conditions as well as temporally changing movement responses by animals to that environment. We show that, with only a little additional consideration, the Poisson likelihood calculation for the Marko...
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作者：Messier, Kyle P.; Katzfuss, Matthias
作者单位：National Institutes of Health (NIH) - USA; NIH National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS); Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a primary constituent of traffic-related air pollution and has well-established harmful environmental and human-health impacts. Knowledge of the spatiotemporal distribution of NO2 is critical for exposure and risk assessment. A common approach for assessing air pollution exposure is linear regression involving spatially referenced covariates, known as land-use regression (LUR). We develop a scalable approach for simultaneous variable selection and estimation of LUR mo...
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作者：Lin, Luyao; Bingham, Derek; Broekgaarden, Floor; Mandel, Ilya
作者单位：Simon Fraser University; Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory; Smithsonian Institution; Harvard University; Monash University
摘要：In this paper, a fast and parallelizable method based on Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to emulate computer models that simulate the formation of binary black holes (BBHs) through the evolution of pairs of massive stars. Two obstacles that arise in this application are the a priori unknown conditions of BBH formation and the large scale of the simulation data. We address them by proposing a local emulator which combines a GP classifier and a GP regression model. The resulting emulator ...
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作者：Ma, Chuoxin; Dai, Hongsheng; Pan, Jianxin
作者单位：University of Manchester; University of Essex
摘要：In cardiovascular studies we often observe ordered multiple events along disease progression which are, essentially, a series of recurrent events and terminal events with competing risk structure. One of the main interests is to explore the event specific association with the dynamics of longitudinal biomarkers. A new statistical challenge arises when the biomarkers carry information from the past event history, providing feedbacks for the occurrences of future events and, particularly, when t...
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作者：Shang, Zhuoran; Erosheva, Elena A.; Xu, Gongjun
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are a family of discrete latent attribute models that serve as statistical basis in educational and psychological cognitive diagnosis assessments. CDMs aim to achieve fine-grained inference on individuals' latent attributes, based on their observed responses to a set of designed diagnostic items. In the literature CDMs usually assume that items require mastery of specific latent attributes and that each attribute is either fully mastered or not mastered by a g...
