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作者：Walsh, Stephen; Ferreira, Marco A. R.; Higdon, David; Zick, Stephanie
作者单位：Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
摘要：Tropical cyclones present a serious threat to many coastal communities around the world. Many numerical weather prediction models provide deterministic forecasts with limited measures of their forecast uncertainty. Standard postprocessing techniques may struggle with extreme events or use a 30-day training window that will not adequately characterize the uncertainty of a tropical cyclone forecast. We propose a novel approach that leverages information from past storm events, using a hierarchic...
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作者：Gibson, Graham C.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Sheldon, Daniel
作者单位：University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst
摘要：The COVID-19 pandemic emerged in late December 2019. In the first six months of the global outbreak, the U.S. reported more cases and deaths than any other country in the world. Effective modeling of the course of the pandemic can help assist with public health resource planning, intervention efforts, and vaccine clinical trials. However, building applied forecasting models presents unique challenges during a pandemic. First, case data available to models in real time represent a nonstationary...
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作者：Holzmann, Hajo; Klar, Bernhard
作者单位：Philipps University Marburg; Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
摘要：Comparative evaluation of forecasts of statistical functionals relies on comparing averaged losses of competing forecasts after the realization of the quantity Y, on which the functional is based, has been observed. Motivated by high-frequency finance, in this paper we investigate how proxies Y similar to for Y- say volatility proxies-which are observed together with Y can be utilized to improve forecast comparisons. We extend previous results on robustness of loss functions for the mean to ge...
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作者：Lee, Tingfang; Buchanan, Ashley L.; Katenka, Natallia, V; Forastiere, Laura; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Friedman, Samuel R.; Nikolopoulos, Georgios
作者单位：University of Rhode Island; University of Rhode Island; Yale University; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; New York University; University of Cyprus
摘要：Evaluating causal effects in the presence of interference is challenging in network-based studies of hard-to-reach populations. Like many such populations, people who inject drugs (PWID) are embedded in social networks and one person's treatment can affect the outcomes of others in the network. In our setting, the study design is observational with a nonrandomized network based HIV prevention intervention. Information is available on each participant and their connections that confer possible ...
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作者：Bodnar, Olha; Eriksson, Viktor
作者单位：Orebro University; Uppsala University
摘要：A method originally suggested by Raymond Birge, using what came to be known as the Birge ratio, has been widely used in metrology and physics for the adjustment of fundamental physical constants, particularly in the periodic reevaluation carried out by the Task Group on Fundamental Physical Constants of CODATA (the Committee on Data of the International Science Council). The method involves increasing the reported uncertainties by a multiplicative factor large enough to make the measurement re...
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作者：Li, Yang; Yang, Haoyu; Yu, Haochen; Huang, Hanwen; Shen, Ye
作者单位：Renmin University of China; Renmin University of China; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia
摘要：Missing values among variables present a challenge in variable selection in the generalized linear model. Common strategies that delete observations with missing information may cause serious information loss. Multiple imputation has been widely used in recent years because it provides unbiased statistical results given a correctly specified imputation model and considers the uncertainty of the missing data. However, variable selection methods in the generalized linear model with multiply-impu...
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作者：Jiang, Jiming; Li, Yuanyuan; Song, Peter X. K.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper concerns analyses of the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential election data, including the data of preelection polls and the actual elections. Our analyses unveil statistical evidence of discrepancy between the polls and real elections that is consistent across these two elections. Specifically, the polls had consistently overestimated advantages of the Democratic candidates or, equivalently, underestimated the true population support of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, in both el...
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作者：Zhang, Shuangjie; Shen, Yuning; Chen, Irene A.; Lee, Juhee
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Many statistical methods have been developed for the analysis of microbial community profiles, but due to the complexity of typical microbiome measurements, inference of interactions between microbial features remains challenging. We develop a Bayesian zero-inflated rounded log-normal kernel method to model interaction between microbial features in a community using multivariate count data in the presence of covariates and excess zeros. The model carefully constructs the interaction structure ...
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作者：Bao, Le; Niu, Xiaoyue; Mahy, Mary; Ghys, Peter D.
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; UNAIDS
摘要：As the global HIV pandemic enters its fifth decade, increasing numbers of countries use routine HIV testing among pregnant women to monitor their epidemics, allowing governments to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, for example, at subnational levels. Currently, the epidemic model that describes the dynamics of the spread of HIV consists of a set of differential equations and is applied independently to each subnational area. However, the availability of the data varies widely which lea...
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作者：Stival, Mattia; Bernardi, Mauro; Dellaportas, Petros
作者单位：University of Padua; University of London; University College London; Athens University of Economics & Business
摘要：We provide an online framework for analyzing data recorded by smart watches during running activities. In particular, we focus on identifying variations in the behavior of one or more measurements caused by changes in physical condition, such as physical discomfort, periods of prolonged detraining, or even the malfunction of measuring devices. Our framework considers data as a sequence of running activities represented by multivariate time series of physical and biometric data. We combine clas...
