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作者：Shang, Yan; Dunson, David; Song, Jing-Sheng
作者单位：Facebook Inc; Duke University; Duke University
摘要：In cargo logistics, a key performance measure is transport risk, defined as the deviation of the actual arrival time from the planned arrival time. Neither earliness nor tardiness is desirable for customer and freight forwarders. In this paper, we investigate ways to assess and forecast transport risks using a half-year of air cargo data, provided by a leading forwarder on 1,336 routes served by 20 airlines. Interestingly, our preliminary data analysis shows a strong multimodal feature in the ...
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作者：Lobel, Ilan; Xiao, Wenqiang
作者单位：New York University
摘要：We consider a manufacturer selling to a retailer with private demand information arising dynamically over an infinite time horizon. Under a backlogging model, we show that the manufacturer's optimal dynamic long-term contract takes a simple form: in the first period, based on her private demand forecast, the retailer selects a wholesale price and pays an associated upfront fee, and, from then on, the two parties stick to a simple wholesale price contract with the retailer's chosen price. Under...
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作者：Bansal, Saurabh; Nagarajan, Mahesh
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of British Columbia
摘要：The acquisition of production flexibility is a well-documented strategy pursued by many firms to counteract certain operational constraints. However, these flexibilities can increase the complexity of a production system and the difficulties in managing increased complexity may hinder exploiting the full benefit of flexibility. In this paper, we consider one such flexibility paradox at an agribusiness firm for an annual $800 million production decision: The firm produces a number of products (...
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作者：Bertsimas, Dimitris; Misic, Velibor V.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：The majority of approaches to product line design that have been proposed by marketing scientists assume that the underlying choice model that describes how the customer population will respond to a new product line is known precisely. In reality, however, marketers do not precisely know how the customer population will respond and can only obtain an estimate of the choice model from limited conjoint data. In this paper, we propose a new type of optimization approach for product line design un...
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作者：Dieker, A. B.; Ghosh, S.; Squillante, M. S.
作者单位：Columbia University; International Business Machines (IBM); IBM USA
摘要：We develop a framework for determining the optimal resource capacity of each station composing a stochastic network, motivated by applications arising in computer capacity planning and business process management. The problem is mathematically intractable in general and therefore one typically resorts to either simplistic analytical approximations or time-consuming simulation-based optimization methods. Our solution framework includes an iterative methodology that relies only on the capability...
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作者：Ang, Marcus; Sigman, Karl; Song, Jing-Sheng; Zhang, Hanqin
作者单位：Singapore Management University; Columbia University; Duke University; National University of Singapore
摘要：We consider a single-item continuous-review (r, q) inventory system with a renewal demand process and Independent, identically distributed stochastic lead times. Using a stationary marked-point process technique and a heavy-traffic limit, we prove a previous conjecture that inventory position and inventory on-order are asymptotically independent. We also establish closed-form expressions for the optimal policy parameters and system cost in heavy-traffic limit, the first of their kind, to our k...
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作者：Vidal, Thibaut
作者单位：Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro
摘要：This article explores a structural neighborhood decomposition for arc routing problems, in which the decisions about traversal orientations during services are made optimally as part of neighbor evaluation procedures. Using memory structures, bidirectional dynamic programming, and lower bounds, we show that a large neighborhood involving classical moves on the sequences of services along with optimal orientation decisions can be searched in amortized O(1) time per move evaluation instead of O(...
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作者：Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr.; Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Winkler, Robert L.
作者单位：University of Virginia; Georgetown University; Duke University
摘要：From forecasting competitions to conditional value-at-risk requirements, the use of multiple quantile assessments is growing in practice. To evaluate them, we use a rule from the general class of proper scoring rules for a forecaster's multiple quantiles of a single uncertain quantity of interest. The general rule is additive in the component scores. Each component contains a function that measures its quantile's distance from the realization and weights its contribution to the overall score. ...
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作者：Chick, Stephen E.; Hasija, Sameer; Nasiry, Javad
作者单位：INSEAD Business School; INSEAD Business School; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We explore the procurement of influenza vaccines by a government whose objective is to minimize the expected social costs (including vaccine, vaccine administration, and influenza treatment costs) when a for-profit vaccine supplier has production yield uncertainty, private information about its productivity (adverse selection), and potentially unverifiable production effort (moral hazard). Timeliness is important-costs for both the supplier and the government procurer may increase if part of t...
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作者：Golrezaei, Negin; Nazerzadeh, Hamid
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：We study the mechanism design problem for a seller of an indivisible good in a setting where privately informed buyers can acquire additional information and refine their valuations for the good at a cost. For this setting, we propose optimal (revenue-maximizing) and efficient (welfare-maximizing) mechanisms that induce a right level of investment in information acquisition. We show that because information is costly, in the optimal and even the efficient mechanisms, not all buyers would obtai...
