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作者：Meloso, Debrah; Nunnari, Salvatore; Ottaviani, Marco
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：We experimentally study information transmission by experts motivated by their reputation for being well-informed. In our game of reputational cheap talk, a reporter privately observes information about a state of the world and sends a message to an evaluator; the evaluator uses the message and the realized state of the world to assess the reporter's informativeness. We manipulate the key driver of misreporting incentives: the uncertainty about the phenomenon to forecast. We highlight three fi...
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作者：Schneemeier, Jan
作者单位：Indiana University System; IU Kelley School of Business; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：We explore a manager's incentives to disclose the precision of a signal about firm profitability. Voluntary disclosure of precision information encourages traders to acquire private information, increasing price informativeness and improving the firm's investment efficiency. We highlight a novel tradeoff: on the one hand, more precise public information crowds out traders' information acquisition by leveling the playing field. On the other hand, there can also be a crowding-in effect because h...
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作者：Kuenn, Steffen; Palacios, Juan; Pestel, Nico
作者单位：Maastricht University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Maastricht University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Maastricht University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Decision making on the job is becoming increasingly important in the labor market, in which there is an unprecedented rise in demand for workers with problem-solving and critical-thinking skills. This paper investigates how indoor air quality affects the quality of strategic decision making based on data from official chess tournaments. Our main analysis relies on a unique data set linking the readings of air-quality monitors inside the tournament room to the quality of 30,000 moves, each of t...
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作者：Wang, Wen; Li, Beibei; Luo, Xueming; Wang, Xiaoyi
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Carnegie Mellon University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Temple University; Zhejiang University
摘要：Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has opened up many unprecedented opportunities in revolutionizing the digital marketing field. In this study, we designed a DRL-based personalized targeting strategy in a sequential setting. We show that the strategy is able to address three important challenges of sequential targeting: (1) forward looking (balancing between a firm's current revenue and future revenues), (2) earning while learning (maximizing profits while continuously learning through explora...
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作者：Fisman, Ray; Huang, Wei; Ning, Bo; Pan, Yue; Qiu, Jiaping; Wang, Yongxiang
作者单位：Boston University; University of International Business & Economics; Xiamen University; Xiamen University; McMaster University; Shanghai Jiao Tong University; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
摘要：We show that superstitions-beliefs without scientific grounding-impact the investment and risk-taking of Chinese firms. We focus on widely held beliefs in bad luck during one's zodiac year, which occurs on a 12-year cycle around a person's birth year, to study superstitions and risk taking. We first show a direct correspondence between zodiac year and risk taking via survey data: respondents are two percentage points more likely to favor no-risk investments if queried during their zodiac year....
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作者：Hasler, Michael; Khapko, Mariana
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas; University of Toronto; University Toronto Scarborough; University of Toronto
摘要：The term structure of equity risk premium is moderately downward-sloping unconditionally, markedly downward-sloping in good times, and markedly upward-sloping in bad times. An asset-pricing model featuring time-varying correlation between realized and expected cashflow shocks explains these puzzling empirical findings. Indeed, the model-implied slope of the equity term structure is in line with the data, both conditionally and unconditionally, because the estimated cashflow shock correlation i...
