作者：Myung, IJ; Ramamoorti, S; Bailey, AD
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：This paper presents a maximum entropy framework for the aggregation of expert opinions where the expert opinions concern the prediction of the outcome of an uncertain event. The event to be predicted and individual predictions rendered are assumed to be discrete random variables. A measure of expert competence is defined using a distance metric between the actual outcome of the event and each expert's predicted outcome. Following Levy and Delic (1994), we use Shannon's information measure (Sha...
