Maximum entropy aggregation of expert predictions

• 成果类型: Article; Proceedings Paper
• 署名作者: Myung, IJ; Ramamoorti, S; Bailey, AD
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.42.10.1420
• 发表日期: 1996
• 页码: 1420-1436
• 关键词: CONSENSUS; expert opinion; Maximum entropy; aggregation; Information theory; decision aids

摘要

This paper presents a maximum entropy framework for the aggregation of expert opinions where the expert opinions concern the prediction of the outcome of an uncertain event. The event to be predicted and individual predictions rendered are assumed to be discrete random variables. A measure of expert competence is defined using a distance metric between the actual outcome of the event and each expert's predicted outcome. Following Levy and Delic (1994), we use Shannon's information measure (Shannon 1948, Jaynes 1957) to derive aggregation rules for combining two or more expert predictions into a single aggregated prediction that appropriately calibrates different degrees of expert competence and reflects any dependence that may exist among the expert predictions. The resulting maximum entropy aggregated prediction is least prejudiced in the sense that it utilizes all information available but remains maximally noncommittal with regard to information not available. Numerical examples to illuminate the implications of maximum entropy aggregation are also presented.