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作者：Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Nau, Robert F.; Winkler, Robert L.
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：Scoring rules can provide incentives for truthful reporting of probabilities and evaluation measures for the probabilities after the events of interest are observed. Often the space of events is ordered and an evaluation relative to some baseline distribution is desired. Scoring rules typically studied in the literature and used in practice do not take account of any ordering of events, and they evaluate probabilities relative to a default baseline distribution. In this paper, we construct ric...
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作者：Lightle, John P.; Kagel, John H.; Arkes, Hal R.
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Group decision making provides a mechanism for channeling individual members' knowledge into productive organizational outcomes. However, in hidden pro. le experiments in which group members have common information favoring an inferior choice, with private information favoring a superior choice, groups typically choose an inferior alternative. We report a hidden profile experiment where we induce homogenous preferences over choice characteristics and provide financial incentives so that the co...
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作者：Ganuza, Juan-Jose; Llobet, Gerard; Dominguez, Beatriz
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：It is commonly argued that in recent years pharmaceutical companies have targeted their research and development (R&D) at small improvements of existing compounds instead of riskier drastic innovations. In this paper, we show that the bias in the pharmaceutical industry toward small innovations might be driven by the low sensitivity of the demand. In particular, small innovations get a proportionally larger reward because pharmaceutical firms target them at the inelastic segments of the demand...
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作者：Ozcan, Serden; Reichstein, Toke
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School
摘要：Studies of career dynamics implicitly claim that government employees are not entrepreneurial. Utilizing longitudinal data from the U. S. Panel Study for Income Dynamics, we investigate the reasons for the low rate of entrepreneurship from the public sector. We conjecture that it is due to labor market matching processes and the bureaucratic nature of public organizations and bureaucratization of individuals. Our life-course analysis identifies labor market matching as a major determinant: non...
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作者：Dorn, Daniel; Sengmueller, Paul
作者单位：Drexel University; Tilburg University
摘要：Among 1,000 German brokerage clients for whom both survey responses and actual trading records are available, investors who report enjoying investing or gambling turn over their portfolio at twice the rate of their peers. Including entertainment attributes as additional explanatory variables in cross-sectional regressions of portfolio turnover on objective investor attributes more than doubles the fraction of the total variation of portfolio turnover that can be explained. The results are robu...
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作者：Christen, Markus; Boulding, William; Staelin, Richard
作者单位：INSEAD Business School; Duke University
摘要：This paper extends the theoretical literature on firms' optimal information strategies to the situation when a firm's management attention capacity to process available data is scarce. In this case, a firm's optimal market intelligence strategy must trade off learning a little about a broad range of markets (a broad strategy) with gaining a very deep understanding of one or a few markets (a focused strategy). This trade-off is not present when data are scarce, an assumption made in most of the...
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作者：Allon, Gad; Federgruen, Awi
作者单位：Northwestern University; Columbia University
摘要：We develop a model for the competitive interactions in service industries where firms cater to multiple customer classes or market segments with the help of shared service facilities or processes so as to exploit pooling benefits. Different customer classes typically have distinct sensitivities to the price of service as well as the delays encountered. In such settings firms need to determine (i) the prices charged to all customer classes; (ii) the waiting time standards, i. e., expected stead...
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作者：Saar-Tsechansky, Maytal; Melville, Prem; Provost, Foster
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; International Business Machines (IBM); IBM USA; New York University
摘要：Most induction algorithms for building predictive models take as input training data in the form of feature vectors. Acquiring the values of features may be costly, and simply acquiring all values may be wasteful or prohibitively expensive. Active feature-value acquisition (AFA) selects features incrementally in an attempt to improve the predictive model most cost-effectively. This paper presents a framework for AFA based on estimating information value. Although straightforward in principle, ...
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作者：Tebbens, Radboud J. Duintjer; Thompson, Kimberly M.
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; Delft University of Technology
摘要：Public health budget constraints force policy makers to prioritize resources toward those interventions that yield the highest perceived benefits. Intuitively, it appears optimal to focus resources on affordable interventions against prevalent diseases. However, due to the dynamics of infectious disease eradication, policies focusing on a static perception of priorities may lead to economically suboptimal outcomes. Using a hypothetical two-disease dynamic transmission model, we explore several...
