-
作者：Kremer, Mirko; Moritz, Brent; Siemsen, Enno
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：We analyze how individuals make forecasts based on time-series data. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we find that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in relatively stable environments, but underreact to errors in relatively unstable environments. The performance loss that is due to such systematic judgment biases is larger in stable than in unstable environments.
-
作者：Murtha, Brian R.; Challagalla, Goutam; Kohli, Ajay K.
作者单位：University of Kentucky; University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
摘要：It is well known that transaction-specific investments (TSIs) made in customers by account managers makes them vulnerable to opportunism by customers (i.e., the targets of the investments). The present research shows that TSIs made in customers by account managers can also lead them to be concerned about internal opportunism by nontargets of the investments (e.g., information technology or finance specialists in their own teams). Furthermore, it shows that concern about internal opportunism le...
-
作者：Williams, Nathan; Kannan, P. K.; Azarm, Shapour
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We examine, in a strategic setting, the broad issue of how retail channel structures-retail monopoly versus retail duopoly-impact a manufacturer's optimal new product design, both in terms of engineering design specifications as well as manufacturer and retailer profits. Our strategic framework enables manufacturers in specific contexts to anticipate the reactions of the retailers and competitive manufacturers to new designs in terms of the retail and wholesale pricing and to understand how di...
-
作者：Atahan, Pelin; Sarkar, Sumit
作者单位：Ozyegin University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：Websites typically provide several links on each page visited by a user. Whereas some of these links help users easily navigate the site, others are typically used to provide targeted recommendations based on the available user profile. When the user profile is not available ( or is inadequate), the site cannot effectively target products, promotions, and advertisements. In those situations, the site can learn the profile of a user as the user traverses the site. Naturally, the faster the site...
-
作者：Giesecke, Kay; Kim, Baeho; Zhu, Shilin
作者单位：Stanford University; Korea University; Stanford University
摘要：Dynamic, intensity-based point process models are widely used to measure and price the correlated default risk in portfolios of credit-sensitive assets such as loans and corporate bonds. Monte Carlo simulation is an important tool for performing computations in these models. This paper develops, analyzes, and evaluates two simulation algorithms for intensity-based point process models. The algorithms extend the conventional thinning scheme to the case where the event intensity is unbounded, a ...
-
作者：Goel, Ankur; Gutierrez, Genaro J.
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Case Western Reserve University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：We consider a firm that procures and distributes a commodity from spot and forward markets under randomly fluctuating prices; the commodity is distributed downstream to a set of nonhomogeneous retailers to satisfy random demand. We formulate a model that allows one to compute approximate, but near optimal, procurement and distribution policies for this system, and we explore the value of the commodity's market in providing managers with (a) additional flexibility in procurement and (b) informa...
-
作者：Zhang, Zhe George; Luh, Hsing Paul; Wang, Chia-Hung
作者单位：Lanzhou University; Simon Fraser University; Western Washington University; National Chengchi University
摘要：Motivated by the waiting lines between the U.S.-Canadian border crossings, we investigate a security-check system with both security and customer service goals. In such a system, every customer has to be inspected by the first-stage inspector, but only a proportion of customers need to go through the second stage for further inspection. This further inspection proportion, affecting both security screening and the system congestion, becomes a key decision variable for the security-check system....
-
作者：Archak, Nikolay; Ghose, Anindya; Ipeirotis, Panagiotis G.
作者单位：New York University
摘要：Increasingly, user-generated product reviews serve as a valuable source of information for customers making product choices online. The existing literature typically incorporates the impact of product reviews on sales based on numeric variables representing the valence and volume of reviews. In this paper, we posit that the information embedded in product reviews cannot be captured by a single scalar value. Rather, we argue that product reviews are multifaceted, and hence the textual content o...
-
作者：Graham, John R.; Hazarika, Sonali; Narasimhan, Krishnamoorthy
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Baruch College (CUNY); Pacific Investment Management Company, LLC
摘要：We study a period of severe disequilibrium to investigate whether board characteristics are related to corporate investment, debt usage, and firm value. During the 1930-1938 Depression era, when the corporate sector was shocked by an unprecedented downturn, we document a relation between board characteristics and firm performance that varies in economically sensible ways: Complex firms (that would benefit more from board advice) exhibit a positive relation between board size and firm value, an...
-
作者：Liu, Qiao; Wong, Kit Pong
作者单位：Peking University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper develops a real options model to understand two distinct roles played by intellectual capital in corporate financing decisions. Whereas limiting a firm's debt capacity because of its low liquidation value, intellectual capital enhances a firm's debt capacity through its positive impact on earnings. Our model shows that the former dominates or is dominated by the latter, depending on whether the rate of dissipation of intellectual capital upon default is larger or smaller than a crit...
