Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kremer, Mirko; Moritz, Brent; Siemsen, Enno
• 署名单位: Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1382
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 1827-1843
• 关键词: Forecasting; behavioral operations; system neglect; exponential smoothing

摘要

We analyze how individuals make forecasts based on time-series data. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we find that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in relatively stable environments, but underreact to errors in relatively unstable environments. The performance loss that is due to such systematic judgment biases is larger in stable than in unstable environments.