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作者：Fong, Nathan M.
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Temple University
摘要：It has become common practice for retailers to personalize direct marketing efforts based on customer transaction histories as a tactic to increase sales. Targeted email offers featuring products in the same category as a customer's previous purchases generate higher purchase rates. However, a targeted offer emphasizing familiar products could result in curtailed search for unadvertised products, as a closely matched offer weakens a customer's incentives to search beyond the targeted items. In...
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作者：Pilehvar, Ali; Elmaghraby, Wedad J.; Gopal, Anandasivam
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Online auction environments provide several sources of information that can be used by bidders to form their bids. The impact of this information on bidding is likely to be higher when ambiguously specified products are auctioned. The secondary market represents one such environment, where used and returned items from big-box retailers are auctioned off to other business buyers. Using a proprietary data set of secondary market auctions hosted on an online business-to-business platform, we stud...
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作者：Abarbanell, Jeffery; Park, Hyungshin
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Southern Methodist University
摘要：Several influential studies have concluded that earnings surprises just to the right or to the left of a hypothesized bright line produce distinct price reactions compared with surrounding earnings surprises because they convey special meaning. In this study, we examine whether previous inferences of asymmetric stock price reactions to bright-line surprises are observed when empirical tests are designed to be consistent with a rational expectations equilibrium. Focusing on a small range of ear...
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作者：Crama, Pascale; De Reyck, Bert; Taneri, Niyazi
作者单位：Singapore Management University; University of London; University College London; Singapore University of Technology & Design
摘要：Research and development (R&D) collaborations, common in high-tech industries, are challenging to manage because of technical and market risks as well as incentive problems. We investigate how control rights, options, payment terms, and timing allow the innovator to capture maximum value from its R&D collaborations with a marketer. Our study reveals a counterintuitive result; the innovator may, under certain conditions, prefer to grant launch control rights or buyout options to the marketer de...
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作者：Atanasov, Pavel; Rescober, Phillip; Stone, Eric; Swift, Samuel A.; Servan-Schreiber, Emile; Tetlock, Philip; Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowdsourcing methods: prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical prediction tournament. Forecasters were randomly assigned to either prediction markets (continuous double auction markets) in which theywere ranked based on earnings, or prediction polls in which they submitted probability judgments, independently or i...
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作者：Berger, Loic; Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo
作者单位：Fondazione Mattei; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); Polytechnic University of Milan
摘要：We propose a robust risk management approach to deal with the problem of catastrophic climate change that incorporates both risk and model uncertainty. Using an analytical model of abatement, we show how aversion to model uncertainty influences the optimal level of mitigation. We disentangle the role of preferences from the structure of model uncertainty, which we define by means of a simple measure of disagreement across models. With data from an expert elicitation about climate change catast...
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作者：Cho, Soo-Haeng; Wang, Xin
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：This paper studies a merger between price-setting newsvendors in an oligopolistic market. It is well known that inventory pooling can greatly reduce inventory costs in a centralized distribution system because it helps reduce aggregate demand uncertainty. Although such statistical economies of scale are important benefits of a retail merger, the extant literature models cost savings from a merger only through reduction in a postmerger firm's marginal cost. In this paper, we develop a model of ...
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作者：Butler, Alexander W.; Cornaggia, Jess; Gurun, Umit G.
作者单位：Rice University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：This paper uses detailed data from an online peer-to-peer lending intermediary to test whether local access to finance affects consumers' willingness to pay for loans. After controlling for local economic conditions and borrower credit quality, we find that borrowers who reside in areas with good access to bank finance request loans with lower interest rates. This effect is stronger for borrowers with poor credit and those seeking small loans, suggesting that local access to finance is more im...
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作者：Walters, Daniel J.; Fernbach, Philip M.; Fox, Craig R.; Sloman, Steven A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Brown University
摘要：We propose that an important determinant of judged confidence is the evaluation of evidence that is unknown or missing, and overconfidence is often driven by the neglect of unknowns. We contrast this account with prior research suggesting that overconfidence is due to biased processing of known evidence in favor of a focal hypothesis. In Study 1, we asked participants to list their thoughts as they answered two-alternative forced-choice trivia questions and judged the probability that their an...
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作者：Wei, Zaiyan; Lin, Mingfeng
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; University of Arizona
摘要：Online peer-to-peer lending (P2P lending) has emerged as an appealing new channel of financing in recent years. A fundamental but largely unanswered question in this nascent industry is the choice of market mechanisms, i.e., how the supply and demand of funds are matched, and the terms (price) at which transactions will occur. Two of the most popular mechanisms are auctions (where the crowd determines the price of the transaction through an auction process) and posted prices (where the platfor...
