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作者：Moore, Don A.; Swift, Samuel A.; Minster, Angela; Mellers, Barbara; Ungar, Lyle; Tetlock, Philip; Yang, Heather H. J.; Tenney, Elizabeth R.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Pennsylvania; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Utah System of Higher Education; University of Utah
摘要：This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique data set from a geopolitical forecasting tournament spanning three years in which thousands of forecasters predicted the outcomes of hundreds of events. We sought to apply insights from research to str...
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作者：Lobel, Ilan; Sadler, Evan; Varshney, Lav R.
作者单位：New York University; Harvard University; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：We study how to optimally attract new customers using a referral program. Whenever a consumer makes a purchase, the firm gives her a link to share with friends, and every purchase coming through that link generates a referral payment. The firm chooses the referral payment function and consumers play an equilibrium in response. The optimal payment function is nonlinear and not necessarily monotonic in the number of successful referrals. If we approximate the optimal policy using a linear paymen...
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作者：Ryall, Michael D.; Sampson, Rachelle C.
作者单位：University of Toronto; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We develop a model in which the parties to a joint production project have a choice of specifying contractual performance in terms of actions or deliverables. Penalties for noncompliance are not specified; rather, they are left to the courts under the legal doctrine of compensatory damages. We analyze three scenarios of increasing uncertainty: full information, where implications of partner actions are known; risk, where implications can be probabilistically quantified; and ambiguity, where im...
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作者：Schlereth, Christian; Skiera, Bernd
作者单位：WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Discrete choice experiments such as choice-based conjoint and dual response are popular preference elicitation methods, yet, they can suffer from context effects, extreme response behavior, and problems with estimating consumers' willingness to pay accurately when the purchase probability is high. This study proposes two new features to avoid these limits: (a) strictly separating all forced and all free choice questions and (b) an adaptive mechanism to select fewer, but more informative, free ...
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作者：Baucells, Manel; Hwang, Woonam
作者单位：University of Virginia; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris
摘要：Consumers possess a mental account that stores the worth of items purchased and yet to be consumed. Reference prices act as the book values of these items. Movements in the account-the comparison between the reference price and the price paid at entry, and the comparison between the benefit of consumption and the reference price at exit-yield hedonic benefits. The reference price is determined by a psychological process of adaptation to the price evoked by the trade. The model is integrative i...
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作者：Ganguly, Ananda; Tasoff, Joshua
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont McKenna College; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University
摘要：We present evidence that intrinsic demand for information about the future is increasing in expected future consumption utility. In the first experiment, subjects may resolve a lottery now or later. The information is useless for decision making, but the larger the reward, the more likely subjects are to pay to resolve the lottery early. In the second experiment, subjects may pay to avoid being tested for herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and the more highly feared type 2 (HSV-2). Subjects a...
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作者：Banerjee, Suman; Noe, Thomas H.
作者单位：University of Wyoming; University of Oxford; University of Oxford
摘要：This paper develops a new theory of the capital structure of parent-subsidiary organizations based on legal-system arbitrage: the capital structure of parent-subsidiary organizations is chosen to minimize the agency costs generated by selective renegotiation of claims written on the component legal entities. We show that optimal mixes of parent-subsidiary-level financing minimize the default premia associated with the organization's overall financing package by equating the marginal enforceabi...
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作者：Trivedi, Minakshi; Gauri, Dinesh K.; Ma, Yu
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Buffalo, SUNY; Texas Christian University; University of Arkansas System; University of Arkansas Fayetteville; McGill University
摘要：In this study, we focus on measuring the efficiency of category-level sales response to promotions across various categories and stores. Our heterogeneous stochastic frontier model allows us to attribute portions of this efficiency to specific characteristics of the stores and categories. Using our full PEM (promotional efficiency frontier) model, we analyze the efficiency of 20 frequently bought categories of a supermarket retailer and apply it to store-category-level data. We find that the a...
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作者：Calzolari, Giacomo; Nardotto, Mattia
作者单位：University of Bologna; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：We study the effects of reminders on people's behavior in investment activities characterized by up-front costs and delayed benefits, such as getting an education and maintaining a healthy lifestyle. We conduct a field experiment and show that simple weekly reminders induce users of a gym to substantially increase their gym attendance over an extensive period. Users' response to reminders is immediate (within hours) and recurrent for any subsequent reminder, which can be explained by limited a...
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作者：Chun, So Yeon; Kleywegt, Anton J.; Shapiro, Alexander
作者单位：Georgetown University; University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
摘要：Many carriers, such as airlines and ocean carriers, collaborate through the formation of alliances. The rules of alliances are important for both the stability of the alliance and the profitability of the alliance members. In this paper, we address the design of resource exchange alliances, a type of alliance agreement widely used in practice, especially in the ocean cargo industry. Resource exchange alliances often increase competition among alliance members since the members can sell substit...
