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作者：Peterson, Jonathan R.; Schneider, Henry S.
作者单位：Nazarbayev University; University of Louisiana System; Louisiana Technical University; Queens University - Canada
摘要：We document a basic characteristic of adverse selection in secondhand markets for durable goods: goods with higher observed quality may have more adverse selection and hence lower unobserved quality. We provide a simple theoretical model to demonstrate this result, which is a consequence of the interaction of sorting between drivers over observed quality and adverse selection over unobserved quality. We then offer empirical support using data on secondhand prices and repair rates of used cars ...
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作者：Van Vlasselaer, Veronique; Eliassi-Rad, Tina; Akoglu, Leman; Snoeck, Monique; Baesens, Bart
作者单位：KU Leuven; Northeastern University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; University of Southampton
摘要：We study the impact of network information for social security fraud detection. In a social security system, companies have to pay taxes to the government. This study aims to identify those companies that intentionally go bankrupt to avoid contributing their taxes. We link companies to each other through their shared resources, because some resources are the instigators of fraud. We introduce GOTCHA!, a new approach to define and extract features from a time-weighted network and to exploit and...
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作者：Zhang, Wei; Dasu, Sriram; Ahmadi, Reza
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; University of Southern California; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We study a microprocessor company selling short-life-cycle products to a set of buyers that includes large consumer electronic goods manufacturers. The seller has a limited capacity for each product and negotiates with each buyer for the price. Our analysis of their sales data reveals that larger purchases do not always result in bigger discounts. Instead, the discount curve is like an N. While existing theories cannot explain this non-monotonic pattern, we develop an analytical model and show...
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作者：Ehling, Paul; Heyerdahl-Larsen, Christian
作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School; University of London; London Business School
摘要：Correlations of equity returns have varied substantially over time and remain a source of continuing policy debate. This paper studies stock market correlations in an equilibrium model with heterogeneous risk aversion. In the model, preference heterogeneity causes variations in the volatility of aggregate risk aversion from good to bad states. At times of high volatility in aggregate risk aversion, which is a common factor in returns, we see high correlations. The model matches average industr...
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作者：Grushka-Cockayne, Yael; Jose, Victor Richmond R.; Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr.
作者单位：University of Virginia; Georgetown University
摘要：Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about the challenges associated with aggregating such forecasts. We introduce a theoretical model to examine the combined effect of overfitting and overconfidence on the average forecast. Their combined effect is that the mean and media...
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作者：Baucells, Manel; Bellezza, Silvia
作者单位：University of Virginia; Columbia University
摘要：We propose the anticipation-event-recall (AER) model. Set in a continuous time frame, the AER model formally links the three components of total utility (i.e., utility from anticipation, event utility, and utility from recall). The AER model predicts the temporal profiles of instant utility experienced before, during, and after a given event. Total utility is calculated as the integral of instant utility. The model builds on the psychological elements of conceptual consumption, adaptation, and...
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作者：Egelman, Carolyn D.; Epple, Dennis; Argote, Linda; Fuchs, Erica R. H.
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：Extending research on organizational learning to multiproduct environments is of particular importance given that the vast majority of products are manufactured in such environments. We investigate learning in a multiproduct facility drawing on exceptionally rich data for a manufacturing firmthat is a leading producer of high-technology hardware components. Weekly data for 10 years from the firm's production and human resource tracking systems are augmented by surveys of managers and engineers...
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作者：Gao, Fei; Su, Xuanming
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Many retailers have recently started to offer customers the option to buy online and pick up in store (BOPS). We study the impact of the BOPS initiative on store operations. We build a stylized model where a retailer operates both online and offline channels. Customers strategically make channel choices. The BOPS option affects customer choice in two ways: by providing real-time information about inventory availability and by reducing the hassle cost of shopping. We obtain three findings. Firs...
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作者：Lejarraga, Tomas; Muller-Trede, Johannes
作者单位：Max Planck Society; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：How do teams make joint decisions under risk when some team members learn about a prospect from description and others learn from experience? In a series of experiments, we find that two-person teams composed of one participant who learns from description and a second participant who learns from experience arrive at shared decisions via mutual concessions. In doing so, they attenuate individual biases, such as the overweighting and underweighting of the probability of rare events. The social i...
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作者：Mamani, Hamed; Nassiri, Shima; Wagner, Michael R.
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：We propose and analyze robust optimization models of an inventory management problem, where cumulative purchase, inventory, and shortage costs over n periods are minimized for correlated nonidentically distributed demand. We assume that the means and covariance matrix of stochastic demand are known; the distributions are not needed. We derive closed-form ordering quantities for both symmetric and asymmetric uncertainty sets, under capacitated inventory constraints, in both static and dynamic s...
