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作者：Hildebrand, Thomas; Puri, Manju; Rocholl, Joerg
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; European School of Management & Technology
摘要：This paper analyzes the substantially growing markets for crowdfunding, in which retail investors lend to borrowers without financial intermediaries. Critics suggest that these markets allow sophisticated investors to take advantage of unsophisticated investors. The growth and viability of these markets critically depend on the underlying incentives. We provide evidence of perverse incentives in crowdfunding that are not fully recognized by the market. In particular, we look at group leader bi...
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作者：Hardisty, David J.; Pfeffer, Jeffrey
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Stanford University
摘要：Three studies explored the effects of uncertainty on people's time preferences for financial gains and losses. In general, individuals seek to avoid uncertainty in situations of intertemporal choice. While holding the expected value of payouts constant, participants preferred immediate gains and losses if the future was uncertain, and preferred future gains and losses if the present was uncertain. This pattern of preferences is incompatible with current models of intertemporal choice, in which...
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作者：Liu, Qi; Tao, Libin; Wu, Weixing; Yu, Jianfeng
作者单位：Peking University; University of International Business & Economics; Tsinghua University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：Numerous studies argue that the market risk premium is associated with expected economic conditions and show that proxies for expected business conditions indeed predict aggregate market returns. By directly estimating short- and long-run expected economic growth, we show that short- run expected economic growth is negatively related to future returns, whereas long-run expected economic growth is positively related to aggregate market returns. In addition, our findings indicate that the risk p...
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作者：Fu, Michael C.; Li, Bingqing; Li, Guozhen; Wu, Rongwen
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Nankai University; Capital One Financial Corporation
摘要：We obtain a closed-form solution for pricing European options under a general jump-diffusion model that can incorporate arbitrary discrete jump-size distributions, including nonparametric distributions such as an empirical distribution. The flexibility in the jump-size distribution allows the model to better capture leptokurtic features found in real-world data. The model uses a discrete-time framework and leads to a pricing formula that is provably convergent to the continuous-time price as t...
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作者：Hilscher, Jens; Wilson, Mungo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Oxford; University of Oxford
摘要：This paper investigates the information in corporate credit ratings. If ratings are to be informative indicators of credit risk, they must reflect what a risk-averse investor cares about: both raw default probability and systematic risk. We find that ratings are relatively inaccurate measures of raw default probability-they are dominated as predictors of failure by a simple model based on publicly available financial information. However, ratings do contain relevant information since they are ...
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作者：Ang, Erjie; Iancu, Dan A.; Swinney, Robert
作者单位：Facebook Inc; Stanford University; Duke University
摘要：We study sourcing in a supply chain with three levels: a manufacturer, tier 1 suppliers, and tier 2 suppliers prone to disruption from, e.g., natural disasters such as earthquakes or floods. The manufacturer may not directly dictate which tier 2 suppliers are used but may influence the sourcing decisions of tier 1 suppliers via contract parameters. The manufacturer's optimal strategy depends critically on the degree of overlap in the supply chain: if tier 1 suppliers share tier 2 suppliers, re...
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作者：Briceno-Arias, Luis; Correa, Jose R.; Perlroth, Andres
作者单位：Universidad Tecnica Federico Santa Maria; Universidad de Chile
摘要：An important economic problem is that of finding optimal pricing mechanisms to sell a single item when there are a random number of buyers who arrive over time. In this paper, we combine ideas from auction theory and recent work on pricing with strategic consumers to derive the optimal continuous time pricing scheme in this situation. Under the assumption that buyers are split among those who have a high valuation and those who have a low valuation for the item, we obtain the price path that m...
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作者：Ibrahim, Rouba; Armony, Mor; Bassamboo, Achal
作者单位：University of London; University College London; New York University; Northwestern University
摘要：Motivated by the recent interest in making delay announcements in large service systems, such as call centers, we investigate the accuracy of announcing the waiting time of the last customer to enter service (LES). In practice, customers typically respond to delay announcements by either balking or by becoming more or less impatient, and their response alters system performance. We study the accuracy of the LES announcement in single-class, multiserver Markovian queueing models with announceme...
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作者：Schmidt, William; Buell, Ryan W.
作者单位：Cornell University; Harvard University
摘要：Operational decisions under information asymmetry can signal a firm's prospects to less informed parties, such as investors, customers, competitors, and regulators. Consequently, managers in these settings often face a trade-off between making an optimal decision and sending a favorable signal. We provide experimental evidence on the choices made by decision makers in such settings. Equilibrium assumptions that are commonly applied to analyze these situations yield the least cost separating ou...
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作者：Tong, Jordan; Feiler, Daniel
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Dartmouth College
摘要：Most operations models assume individuals make decisions based on a perfect understanding of random variables or stochastic processes. In reality, however, individuals are subject to cognitive limitations and make systematic errors. We leverage established psychology on sample naivete to model individuals' forecasting errors and biases in a way that is portable to operations models. The model has one behavioral parameter and embeds perfect rationality as a special case. We use the model to mat...
