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作者：Hoffmann, Florian; Inderst, Roman; Ottaviani, Marco
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Goethe University Frankfurt; Bocconi University
摘要：This paper models how firms or political campaigners (senders) persuade consumers and voters (receivers) by selectively disclosing information about their offering depending on individual receivers' preferences and orientations. We derive positive and normative implications depending on the extent of competition among senders, whether receivers are wary of senders collecting personalized data, and whether firms are able to personalize prices. We show how both senders and receivers can benefit ...
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作者：Cong, Jiajia; Zhou, Wen
作者单位：Fudan University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：We study the value of commitment in a business environment that is both competitive and uncertain, in which two firms face stochastic demands and compete in positioning and repositioning. If the future demand tends to disperse or the demand uncertainty is sufficiently large, one firm chooses rigidity (i.e., commits not to change its positions), and the other chooses flexibility (i.e., to reposition freely). We find that a firm's rigidity can benefit not only itself, but also its flexible rival...
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作者：Andrei, Daniel; Hasler, Michael
作者单位：McGill University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：We investigate the dynamic problem of how much attention an investor should pay to news in order to learn about stock-return predictability and maximize expected lifetime utility. We show that the optimal amount of attention is U-shaped in the return predictor, increasing with both uncertainty and the magnitude of the predictive coefficient and decreasing with stock-return volatility. The optimal risky asset position exhibits a negative hedging demand that is hump shaped in the return predicto...
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作者：Bartel, Ann P.; Chan, Carri W.; Kim, Song-Hee
作者单位：Columbia University; Columbia University; University of Southern California
摘要：The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and the National Quality Forum have endorsed the 30-day mortality rate as an important indicator of hospital quality. Concerns have been raised, however, as to whether postdischarge mortality rates are reasonable measures of hospital quality as they consider the frequency of an event that occurs after a patient is discharged and is no longer under the watch and care of hospital staff. Estimating the causal effect of length of stay (LOS) on pos...
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作者：Ashlagi, Itai; Braverman, Mark; Kanoria, Yash; Shi, Peng
作者单位：Stanford University; Princeton University; Columbia University; University of Southern California
摘要：We study how to reduce congestion in two-sided matching markets with private preferences. We measure congestion by the number of bits of information that agents must (i) learn about their own preferences, and (ii) communicate with others before obtaining their final match. Previous results suggest that a high level of congestion is inevitable under arbitrary preferences before the market can clear with a stable matching. We show that when the unobservable component of agent preferences satisfi...
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作者：Papanastasiou, Yiangos
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：In the wake of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, social-media platforms are facing increasing pressure to combat the propagation of fake news (i.e., articles whose content is fabricated). Motivated by recent attempts in this direction, we consider the problem faced by a social-media platform that is observing the sharing actions of a sequence of rational agents and is dynamically choosing whether to conduct an inspection (i.e., a fact-check) of an article whose validity is ex ante unknown. ...
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作者：Hagiu, Andrei; Wright, Julian
作者单位：Boston University; National University of Singapore
摘要：A key strategic decision for platforms is the extent to which they should facilitate the entry of untested new products and sellers alongside established products and sellers. Exploration by current buyers helps future buyers better value these products and sellers. This externality across buyers raises the possibility that there may be too little exploration from the platform's perspective. On the other hand, when sellers have market power and so price strategically, and platforms extract a s...
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作者：Bollinger, Bryan K.; Hartmann, Wesley R.
作者单位：New York University; Stanford University
摘要：Essential resources, like electricity and water, can experience rapidly changing demand or supply while the other side of the market is unchanged. Short-run price variation could efficiently allocate resources at these critical times but only if consumers exhibit short-run demand elasticity. The question for firms in these markets has always been how to enable this response. Randomized control trials are increasingly used to test dynamic pricing and technologies that can assist in response by ...
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作者：Blanc, Sebastian M.; Setzer, Thomas
摘要：Combining forecasts is an established approach for improving forecast accuracy. So-called optimal weights (OWs) estimate combination weights by minimizing errors on past forecasts. Yet the most successful and common approach ignores all training data and assigns equal weights (EWs) to forecasts. We analyze this phenomenon by relating forecast combination to statistical learning theory, which decomposes forecast errors into three components: bias, variance, and irreducible error. In this framew...
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作者：Alizamir, Saed; de Vericourt, Francis; Wang, Shouqiang
作者单位：Yale University; European School of Management & Technology; University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas
摘要：The World Health Organization seeks effective ways to alert its member states about global pandemics. Motivated by this challenge, we study a public agency's problem of designing warning policies to mitigate potential disasters that occur with advance notice. The agency privately receives early information about recurring harmful events and issues warnings to induce an uninformed stakeholder to take preemptive actions. The agency's decision to issue a warning critically depends on its reputati...
