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作者：Gray, PK; Gray, SF
作者单位：University of Queensland; Duke University
摘要：This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas ...
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作者：Lee, I
摘要：This article examines the relation between top executives' trading and the long-run stock returns of seasoned equity issuing firms. Primary issuers, who sell mostly newly-issued primary shares, significantly underperform their benchmarks, regardless of the top executives' prior trading pattern. However, top executives' trading is reliably associated with the stock returns of secondary issuers, who sell mostly secondary shares previously held by existing shareholders. On average, secondary issu...
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作者：Sias, RW; Starks, LT
摘要：This article evaluates the tax-loss-selling hypothesis against the window-dressing hypothesis as explanations for turn-of-the-year anomalies. We examine differences between securities dominated by individual investors versus those dominated by institutional investors and find that the effect is more pervasive in the former. Controlling for capitalization, we find that in early January (late December), stocks with greater individual investor interest outperform (underperform) stocks with greate...
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作者：Knez, PJ; Ready, MJ
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We use a robust regression estimator to analyze the risk premia on size and book-to-market. We find that the risk premium on size that was estimated by Fama and French (1992) completely disappears when the 1 percent most extreme observations are trimmed each month. We also show that the negative average of the monthly size coefficients reported by Fama and French can be entirely explained by the 16 months with the most extreme coefficients. We argue that further investigation of these results ...
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作者：Dewenter, KL; Malatesta, PH
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：We compare initial offer prices in privatizations to initial prices in public offerings of private companies. The evidence indicates that government officials in the United Kingdom underprice IPOs significantly more than their private company counterparts. In Canada and Malaysia, however, the opposite is true. There does not appear to be a general tendency for privatizations to be underpriced to a greater degree than private company IPOs. We provide additional evidence on the determinants of p...
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作者：Kamara, A
摘要：The relation between default-free interest rates and expected economic growth is substantially stronger than suggested by extant literature. Futures-implied Treasury bill yield spreads are more highly correlated with future real consumption, investment, and GNP growth than spot spreads. This stronger relation arises because using futures removes a component of the spot term structure that covaries negatively with real economic growth. Treasury forward rates from spot bills contain a premium fo...
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作者：Musto, DK
摘要：Commercial paper sells at an extra discount if it matures in the next calendar year but Treasury bills do not. The discount is apparent in downward price shifts before the year-end, and upward price shifts at the turn of the year that are significantly correlated with the simultaneous returns to small stocks, and that cannot reflect tax-loss selling. Cross-sectional and time-series tests on prices, as well as flow of funds evidence on trades by institutional investors, indicate that both the d...
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作者：Chapman, DA
摘要：This article tests a simple consumption-based asset pricing model by approximating the true asset pricing kernel using low-order orthonormal polynomials based on the model's state variables. Approximated kernels based solely on next period's consumption growth are not rejected by overall measures of model fit, but they produce statistically and economically large pricing errors. Approximated kernels based on two quarters of future consumption growth and technology shocks have substantially imp...
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作者：Geczy, C; Minton, BA; Schrand, C
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：We examine the use of currency derivatives in order to differentiate among existing theories of hedging behavior. Firms with greater growth opportunities and tighter financial constraints are more likely to use currency derivatives. This result suggests that firms might use derivatives to reduce cash flow variation that might otherwise preclude firms from investing in valuable growth opportunities. Firms with extensive foreign exchange-rate exposure and economies of scale in hedging activities...
