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作者：Céspedes, LF; Chang, R; Velasco, A
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Wasmer, E; Weil, P
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite de Lorraine
摘要：Credit market imperfections influence the labor market and aggregate economic activity. In turn, macroeconomic factors have an impact on the credit sector. To assess these effects in a tractable general-equilibrium framework, we introduce endogenous search frictions, in the spirit of Peter Diamond (1990), in both credit and labor markets. We demonstrate that credit frictions amplify macroeconomic volatility through a financial accelerator. The magnitude of this general-equilibrium accelerator ...
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作者：Mailath, GJ; Postlewatte, A; Samuelson, L
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We study transactions that require investments before trading in a competitive market, when forward contracts fixing the transaction price are absent. We show that, despite the market being perfectly competitive and subject to arbitrarily little uncertainty, the inability to jointly determine investment levels and prices may make it impossible for buyers and sellers to predict the prices at which they will trade, leading to inefficient levels of investment and trade.
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作者：Sala-I-Martin, X; Doppelhofer, G; Miller, RI
作者单位：Columbia University; Pompeu Fabra University; University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It introduces and employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates by averaging OLS coefficients across models. The weights given to individual regressions have a Bayesian justification similar to the Schwarz model selection criterion. Of 67 explanatory variables we find 18 to be significantly and robustly partially correlated with long...
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作者：Somerville, RA
作者单位：Trinity College Dublin
摘要：This paper shows how the demand for non-life insurance interacts with consumption and saving. The analysis is set in continuous time, using the maximum principle. When insurance is actuarially fair, the insurance and consumption decisions are separable. With loaded premiums, and alternatively without insurance, optimal consumption is dynamically related to the growth rate of the loss probability, and a growing loss probability generates precautionary saving. With loaded premiums, less than ful...
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作者：Van Den Steen, E
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Rational agents with differing priors tend to be overoptimistic about their chances of success. In particular, an agent who tries to choose the action that is most likely to succeed, is more likely to choose an action of which he overestimated, rather than underestimated, the likelihood of success. After studying the comparative statics of this mechanism, I show that it also causes agents to attribute failure to exogenous factors but success to their own choice of action, to disproportionately...
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作者：Caballero, RJ; Engel, EMRA
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
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作者：Huang, KXD; Liu, Z; Phaneuf, L
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Wuhan University; Emory University; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：The cyclical behavior of real wages has evolved from mildly countercyclical during the interwar period to modestly procyclical in the postwar era. This paper presents a general-equilibrium business-cycle model that helps explain the evolution. In the model, changes in the real wage cyclicality arise from interactions between nominal wage and price rigidities and an evolving input-output structure.
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作者：Barlevy, G
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Robert E. Lucas, Jr. argued that the welfare gains from reducing aggregate consumption volatility are negligible. Subsequent work that revisited his calculation continued to find small welfare benefits, further reinforcing the perception that business cycles do not matter. This paper argues instead that fluctuations can affect welfare, by affecting the growth rate of consumption. I show that fluctuations can reduce growth starting from a given initial consumption, which can imply substantial w...
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作者：Sugden, R
作者单位：University of East Anglia
摘要：This paper proposes a formulation of consumer sovereignty, for use in normative economics, which does not presuppose individuals' preferences to be coherent. The fundamental intuition, that opportunity and responsibility have moral value, is formalized as an opportunity criterion for assessing resource allocation systems. A model of an exchange economy is presented in which rational arbitrageurs compete to make profits by trading with nonrational consumers. In equilibrium, this economy satisfi...
