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作者：Chien, YiLi; Cole, Harold; Lustig, Hanno
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Our paper examines whether the failure of unsophisticated investors to rebalance their portfolios can help to explain the countercyclical volatility of aggregate risk compensation in financial markets. To answer this question, we set up a model in which a large mass of investors do not rebalance their portfolio shares in response to aggregate shocks, while a smaller mass of active investors do. We find that intermittent rebalancers more than double the effect of aggregate shocks on the time va...
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作者：Ortoleva, Pietro
作者单位：California Institute of Technology
摘要：Bayes' rule has two well-known limitations: 1) it does not model the reaction to zero-probability events; 2) a sizable empirical evidence documents systematic violations of it. We characterize axiomatically an alternative updating rule, the Hypothesis Testing model. According to it, the agent follows Bayes' rule if she receives information to which she assigned a probability above a threshold. Otherwise, she looks at a prior over priors, updates it using Bayes' rule for second-order priors, an...
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作者：Michaillat, Pascal
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
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作者：Jimenez, Gabriel; Ongena, Steven; Peydro, Jose-Luis; Saurina, Jesus
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Tilburg University; Pompeu Fabra University; European Central Bank
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作者：Arkolakis, Costas; Costinot, Arnaud; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Micro-level data have had a profound influence on research in international trade over the last ten years. In many regards, this research agenda has been very successful. New stylized facts have been uncovered and new trade models have been developed to explain these facts. In this paper we investigate to what extent answers to new micro-level questions have affected answers to an old and central question in the field: how large are the welfare gains from trade? A crude summary of our results ...
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作者：Taylor, Eric S.; Tyler, John H.
作者单位：Stanford University; Brown University
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作者：Barsky, Robert B.; Sims, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Notre Dame
摘要：Innovations to consumer confidence convey incremental information about economic activity far into the future. Does this reflect a causal effect of animal spirits on economic activity, or news about exogenous future productivity received by consumers? Using indirect inference, we study the impulse responses to confidence innovations in conjunction with an appropriately augmented New Keynesian model. While news, animal spirits, and pure noise all contribute to confidence innovations, the relati...
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作者：Bar-Isaac, Heski; Caruana, Guillermo; Cunat, Vicente
作者单位：New York University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
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作者：Halac, Marina
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：This article studies optimal relational contracts when the value of the relationship between contracting parties is not commonly known. I consider a principal-agent setting where the principal has persistent private information about her outside option. I show that if the principal has the bargaining power, she wants to understate her outside option to provide strong incentives and then renege on promised payments, while if the uninformed agent has the bargaining power, the principal wants to ...
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作者：Herold, Florian
作者单位：Otto Friedrich University Bamberg
摘要：We study the evolution of both characteristics of reciprocity: the willingness to reward and the willingness to punish. First, both preferences for rewarding and preferences for punishing can survive provided that individuals interact within separate groups. Second, rewarders survive only in coexistence with self-interested preferences, but punishers either vanish or dominate the population entirely. Third, the evolution of preferences for rewarding and the evolution of preferences for punishi...
