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作者：Grigoris, Fotis; Segal, Gill
作者单位：University of Iowa; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：The impact of uncertainty shocks on firm-level economic activity depends on their origin in supply chains. Upstream (downstream) uncertainty from suppliers (customers) is associated with variability over future input (output) prices. Consequently, a real-option production model with time-to-build suggests that only upstream uncertainty suppresses investment, since upstream (downstream) uncertainty affects the shorter (longer) run. Production network data show that upstream uncertainty negative...
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作者：Hatfield, John william; Kominers, Scott duke; Lowery, Richard
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：High commissions in the U.S. residential real estate agency market pose a puzzle for economic theory because brokerage is not a concentrated industry. We model brokered markets as a game in which agents post prices for customers and then choose which other agents to work with. We show that there exists an equilibrium in which each agent conditions working with other agents on those agents' posted prices. Prices can therefore be meaningfully higher than the competitive level (for a fixed discou...
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作者：Kremens, Lukas; Martin, Ian W. R.; Varela, Liliana
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study exchange rate expectations in surveys of financial professionals and find that they successfully forecast currency appreciation at the two-year horizon, both in and out of sample. Exchange rate expectations are also interpretable, in the sense that three macro-finance variables-the risk-neutral covariance between the exchange rate and equity market, the real exchange rate, and the current account relative to GDP-explain most of their variation. There is no secret sauce, however, in ex...
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作者：Catherine, Sylvain; Miller, Max; Sarin, Natasha
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Harvard University; Yale University
摘要：Recent influential work finds large increases in inequality in the United States based on measures of wealth concentration that notably exclude the value of social insurance programs. This paper shows that top wealth shares have not changed much over the last three decades when Social Security is properly accounted for. This is because Social Security wealth increased substantially from $7.2 trillion in 1989 to $40.6 trillion in 2019 and now represents nearly 50% of the wealth of the bottom 90...
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作者：Cook, Lisa d.; Marx, Matt; Yimfor, Emmanuel
作者单位：Michigan State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Cornell University; Columbia University
摘要：We classify the race of over 160,000 U.S. founders and investors and study the venture capital (VC) funding gap for Black entrepreneurs. Only 3.1% of VC-funded startups are Black-owned, and they raise half as much VC funding as others. We attribute much of this gap to Black founders having fewer traditional success markers, like patents or entrepreneurial experience. This disparity also affects matching: Black VC partners invest more in Black founders, and these investments have higher success...
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作者：Antill, Samuel; Hunter, Megan
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：We estimate the indirect costs of corporate bankruptcy associated with lost customers. In incentivized experiments, randomly informing consumers about a firm's Chapter 11 reorganization lowers their willingness to pay for the firm's products by 17% to 28%. Consumers worry that bankruptcy could reduce product quality or prevent future interactions with the bankrupt firm. On average, 38% of consumers are aware of major bankruptcies. Using our experiments to estimate a structural model, we show t...
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作者：Derrien, Francois; Kruger, Philipp; Landier, Augustin; Yao, Tianhao
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; University of Geneva; European Corporate Governance Institute; Singapore Management University
摘要：We investigate the expected consequences of negative environmental, social, and governance (ESG) news on firms' future profits. After learning about negative ESG news, analysts significantly downgrade their forecasts at short and longer horizons. Negative ESG news affects forecasts more strongly at longer horizons than other types of negative corporate news. The negative revisions of earnings forecasts following negative ESG news largely reflect expectations of lower future sales, rather than ...
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作者：Parise, Gianpaolo; Rubin, Mirco
作者单位：Tilburg University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universite Catholique de Lille; EDHEC Business School
摘要：This paper establishes that mutual funds strategically time their trades in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) stocks around disclosure dates to inflate their sustainability ratings. This claim is supported by three empirical findings. First, we show that funds' ESG betas increase shortly before disclosure and decrease shortly afterwards. Second, we document that post-disclosure fund returns are higher but have lower ESG exposure than disclosed portfolios. Third, we provide evidence t...
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作者：Hoffmann, Florian; Vladimirov, Vladimir
作者单位：KU Leuven; University of Amsterdam; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：The voluntary departure of hard-to-replace skilled workers worsens firm prospects, which can lead to additional departures. We develop a model in which firms design compensation to limit the risk of such worker runs. To achieve cost-efficient retention, firms combine fixed wages with dilutable compensation-such as vesting equity or bonus pools-which pays remaining workers more when others leave but gets diluted otherwise. Compensating (identical) workers with differently structured compensatio...
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作者：Blickle, Kristian; Parlatore, Cecilia; Saunders, Anthony
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University
摘要：Using supervisory data on the loan portfolios of large U.S. banks, we document that these banks specialize by concentrating their lending disproportionately in a few industries. This specialization is consistent with banks having industry-specific knowledge, reflected in reduced risk of loan defaults, lower aggregate charge-offs, and higher propensity to lend to opaque firms in the preferred industry. Banks attract high-quality borrowers by offering generous loan terms in their specialized ind...
