Investment under Upstream and Downstream Uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Grigoris, Fotis; Segal, Gill
• 署名单位: University of Iowa; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF FINANCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1082; 1540-6261
• DOI: 10.1111/jofi.70010
• 发表日期: 2026-02
• 页码: 413-457
• 关键词: production networks; volatility; shocks; GROWTH; price; MODEL; channel; POLICY

摘要

The impact of uncertainty shocks on firm-level economic activity depends on their origin in supply chains. Upstream (downstream) uncertainty from suppliers (customers) is associated with variability over future input (output) prices. Consequently, a real-option production model with time-to-build suggests that only upstream uncertainty suppresses investment, since upstream (downstream) uncertainty affects the shorter (longer) run. Production network data show that upstream uncertainty negatively affects firm-level outcomes. Conversely, downstream uncertainty affects firm-level outcomes more weakly but positively. At the macro level, these two uncertainties oppositely predict aggregate growth and asset prices. Overall, downstream uncertainty has an expansionary effect, in contrast to other facets of uncertainty.