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作者：Barkai, Simcha; Panageas, Stavros
作者单位：Boston College; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Young firms' contribution to aggregate employment has been underwhelming. We show that a similar trend is not apparent, however, in their contribution to aggregate sales or stock market capitalization, implying that these firms have exhibited a high average-to-marginal revenue product of labor. We study the implications of a gradual shift in the average-to-marginal revenue product of labor within a model of dynamic firm heterogeneity. We show that this shift provides (i) a unified explanation ...
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作者：Falato, Antonio; Scharfstein, David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using confidential supervisory risk ratings, we document that banks increase risk after going public compared to a control group of banks that filed to go public but withdrew their filings for plausibly exogenous reasons. The increase in risk improves short-term performance at the expense of long-term performance. We argue that the increase in risk stems from pressure to maximize short-term stock prices and earnings once the bank is publicly traded. After going public, banks owned by investors...
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作者：Medina, Paolina C.; Pagel, Michaela
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; Washington University (WUSTL); National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Using an experiment in which 3.1 million bank customers were encouraged to save, we explore the mechanisms behind coholding liquid savings and credit card debt. Theoretically, we show that the joint responses of spending, saving, and borrowing to the nudge differ across economic models of coholding. Using machine learning techniques, we find that the most responsive individuals reduce spending and increase savings by 4.9% (206 USD PPP per month) while their credit card debt remains unchanged. ...
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作者：Hirshleifer, David; Mai, Dat; Pukthuanthong, Kuntara
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
摘要：A war-related factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the cross section of expected stock returns. Using a semisupervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor predicts the cross section of returns across test assets derived from both traditional and machine learning construction techniques, and spanning 138 anomalies. Our findings are consistent with assets that are good hedges for war...
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作者：Parlatore, Cecilia; Philippon, Thomas
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the optimal design of stress scenarios. A principal manages the unknown risk exposures of agents by asking them to report losses under hypothetical scenarios before taking remedial actions. We apply a Kalman filter to solve the learning problem, and we relate the optimal design to the risk environment, the principal's preferences, and available interventions. In a banking context, optimal capital requirements cover losses under an adverse scenario, while targeted interventions depend ...
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作者：Guernsey, Scott; Guo, Feng; Liu, Tingting; Serfling, Matthew
作者单位：University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Iowa State University
摘要：Based on a comprehensive data set of classified (staggered) boards covering nearly all U.S. public firms from 1991 to 2020, we show that contrary to conventional wisdom, the use of classified boards remains widespread. Moreover, classified board usage over a firm's life cycle depends significantly on the decade the firm matured or year it went public. While classified boards were rarely removed in the 1990s, firms became more likely to declassify as they matured during the following decades. D...
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作者：Huang, Jing-zhi; Nozawa, Yoshio; Shi, Zhan
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Toronto; University of Toronto; University Toronto Scarborough; Tsinghua University
摘要：We examine the ability of structural models to predict credit spreads using global default data and security-level credit spread data in eight developed economies. We find that two representative, pure default-risk models tend to underpredict the average credit spreads on investment-grade (IG) bonds, especially their spreads over government bonds, thereby providing evidence for a global credit spread puzzle. However, a model incorporating endogenous liquidity in the secondary debt market helps...
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作者：Malenko, Andrey; Malenko, Nadya; Spatt, Chester
作者单位：Boston College; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：We analyze how a profit-maximizing proxy advisor designs vote recommendations and research reports. The advisor benefits from producing informative, unbiased reports, but only partially informative recommendations, biased against the a priori likely alternative. Such recommendations induce close votes, increasing controversy and thereby the relevance and value of proxy advice. Our results suggest shifting from an exclusive emphasis on recommendations, highlighting the importance of both report...
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作者：Puri, Indira
作者单位：New York University
摘要：I introduce and test for preference for simplicity in choice under risk. I characterize the theory axiomatically, and derive its properties and unique predictions relative to canonical models. By designing and running theoretically motivated experiments, I document that people value simplicity in ways not fully captured by existing models that study risk premia in financial markets. Participants' risk premia increase as complexity increases, holding moments fixed; their dominance violations in...
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作者：Hu, Allen; Ma, Song
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Persuasive communication functions through not only content but also delivery-facial expression, tone of voice, and diction. This paper examines the persuasiveness of delivery in startup pitches. Using machine learning algorithms to process full pitch videos, we quantify persuasion in visual, vocal, and verbal dimensions. We find that positive (i.e., passionate, warm) pitches increase funding probability. However, conditional on funding, startups with higher levels of pitch positivity underper...
