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作者：Feyrer, James; Mansur, Erin T.; Sacerdote, Bruce
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We track the geographic and temporal propagation of local economic shocks from new oil and gas production generated by hydrofracturing. Each million dollars of new production produces $80,000 in wage income and $132,000 in royalty and business income within a county. Within 100 miles, one million dollars of new production generates $257,000 in wages and $286,000 in royalty and business income. Roughly two-thirds of the wage income increase persists for two years. Assuming no general equilibriu...
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作者：Ellis, Andrew; Piccione, Michele
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We present a decision-theoretic analysis of an agent's understanding of the interdependencies in her choices. We provide the foundations for a simple and flexible model that allows the misperception of correlated risks. We introduce a framework in which the decision maker chooses a portfolio of assets among which she may misperceive the joint returns, and present simple axioms equivalent to a representation in which she attaches a probability to each possible joint distribution over returns an...
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作者：Lise, Jeremy; Robin, Jean-Marc
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of London; University College London
摘要：We develop an equilibrium model of on-the-job search with ex ante heterogeneous workers and firms, aggregate uncertainty, and vacancy creation. The model produces rich dynamics in which the distributions of unemployed workers, vacancies, and worker-firm matches evolve stochastically over time. We prove that the surplus function, which fully characterizes the match value and the mobility decision of workers, does not depend on these distributions. This result means the model is tractable and ca...
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作者：Nishimura, Hiroki; Ok, Efe A.; Quah, John K. -H.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Riverside; New York University; New York University; Johns Hopkins University; National University of Singapore
摘要：We develop a version of Afriat's theorem that is applicable in a variety of choice environments beyond the setting of classical consumer theory. This allows us to devise tests for rationalizability in environments where the set of alternatives is not the positive orthant of a Euclidean space and where the rationalizing utility function is required to satisfy properties appropriate to that environment. We show that our results are applicable, amongst others, to choice data on lotteries, conting...
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作者：Bagues, Manuel; Sylos-Labini, Mauro; Zinovyeva, Natalia
作者单位：Aalto University; University of Pisa
摘要：We analyze how a larger presence of female evaluators affects committee decision-making using information on 100,000 applications to associate and full professorships in Italy and Spain. These applications were assessed by 8,000 randomly selected evaluators. A larger number of women in evaluation committees does not increase either the quantity or the quality of female candidates who qualify. Information from individual voting reports suggests that female evaluators are not significantly more ...
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作者：Shiller, Robert J.
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This address considers the epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations. The human brain has always been highly tuned toward narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing. Stories motivate and connect activities to deeply felt values and needs. Narratives go viral and spread far, even worldwide, with economic impact. The 1920-1921 Depression, the Great Depression of the 1930s, the so-called Great Recession of 2...
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作者：Bianchi, Francesco; Melosi, Leonardo
作者单位：Duke University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a Markov-switching VAR to highlight that a zero-lower-bound regime captures most of the comovements during the Great Recession: a deep recession, no deflation, and large fiscal imbalances. We then show that a microfounded model that features policy uncertainty accounts for these stylized facts. Finally, we highlight ...
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作者：Ponce, Alejandro; Seira, Enrique; Zamarripa, Guillermo
作者单位：Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico
摘要：We establish new facts about the way consumers allocate debt among their credit cards using data for a representative sample of card-holders in Mexico. We find that relative prices are weak predictors of the allocation of debt, purchases, and payments. Consumers allocate a large fraction of their debt to high-interest cards, incurring a cost of 31 percent above the minimum. Using an experiment, we find that consumers do not substitute in the price margin, although they respond to salient tempo...
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作者：Hassan, Tarek A.; Mertens, Thomas M.
作者单位：University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We show that the stock market may fail to aggregate information even if it appears to be efficient, and that the resulting decrease in the information content of prices may drastically reduce welfare. We solve a macroeconomic model in which information about fundamentals is dispersed and households make small, correlated errors when forming expectations about future productivity. As information aggregates in the market, these errors amplify and crowd out the information content of stock prices...
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作者：Tri Vi Dang; Gorton, Gary; Holmstroem, Bengt; Ordonez, Guillermo
作者单位：Columbia University; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Banks produce short-term debt for transactions and storing value. The value of this debt must not vary over time so agents can easily trade it at par like money. To produce money-like safe liquidity, banks keep detailed information about their loans secret, reducing liquidity if needed to prevent agents from producing costly private information about the banks' loans. Capital markets involve information revelation, so they produce risky liquidity. The trade-off between less safe liquidity and ...
