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作者：Apesteguia, Jose; Ballester, Miguel A.; Lu, Jay
作者单位：ICREA; Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; University of Oxford; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We propose a novel model of stochastic choice: the single-crossing random utility model (SCRUM). This is a random utility model in which the collection of preferences satisfies the single-crossing property. We offer a characterization of SCRUMs based on two easy-to-check properties: the classic Monotonicity property and a novel condition, Centrality. The identified collection of preferences and associated probabilities is unique. We show that SCRUMs nest both single-peaked and single-dipped ra...
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作者：Bourles, Renaud; Bramoulle, Yann; Perez-Richet, Eduardo
作者单位：Aix-Marseille Universite
摘要：We provide the first analysis of altruism in networks. Agents are embedded in a fixed network and care about the well-being of their network neighbors. Depending on incomes, they may provide financial support to their poorer friends. We study the Nash equilibria of the resulting game of transfers. We show that equilibria maximize a concave potential function. We establish existence, uniqueness of equilibrium consumption, and generic uniqueness of equilibrium transfers. We characterize the geom...
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作者：Hirano, Keisuke; Wright, Jonathan H.
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：We consider forecasting with uncertainty about the choice of predictor variables. The researcher wants to select a model, estimate the parameters, and use the parameter estimates for forecasting. We investigate the distributional properties of a number of different schemes for model choice and parameter estimation, including: in-sample model selection using the Akaike information criterion; out-of-sample model selection; and splitting the data into subsamples for model selection and parameter ...
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作者：Wiseman, Thomas
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：I study repeated competition among oligopolists. The only novelty is that firms may go bankrupt and permanently exit: the probability that a firm survives a price war depends on its financial strength, which varies stochastically over time. Under some conditions including no entry, an anti-folk theorem holds: when firms are patient, so that strength levels change relatively quickly, every Nash equilibrium involves an immediate price war that lasts until at most one firm remains. Surprisingly, ...
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作者：Carroll, Gabriel
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：A principal wishes to screen an agent along several dimensions of private information simultaneously. The agent has quasilinear preferences that are additively separable across the various components. We consider a robust version of the principal's problem, in which she knows the marginal distribution of each component of the agent's type, but does not know the joint distribution. Any mechanism is evaluated by its worst-case expected profit, over all joint distributions consistent with the kno...
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作者：Steiner, Jakub; Stewart, Colin; Matejka, Filip
作者单位：Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; University of Edinburgh; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; University of Toronto
摘要：We solve a general class of dynamic rational inattention problems in which an agent repeatedly acquires costly information about an evolving state and selects actions. The solution resembles the choice rule in a dynamic logit model, but it is biased toward an optimal default rule that is independent of the realized state. The model provides the same fit to choice data as dynamic logit, but, because of the bias, yields different counterfactual predictions. We apply the general solution to the s...
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作者：Rothe, Christoph
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：Limited overlap between the covariate distributions of groups with different treatment assignments does not only make estimates of average treatment effects rather imprecise, but can also lead to substantially distorted confidence intervals. This paper argues that this is because the coverage error of traditional confidence intervals is driven by the number of observations in the areas of limited overlap. Some of these local sample sizes can be very small in applications, up to the point that ...
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作者：Silveira, Bernardo S.
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：This paper empirically investigates how sentences to be assigned at trial impact plea bargaining. The analysis is based on the model of bargaining with asymmetric information by Bebchuk (1984). I provide conditions for the nonparametric identification of the model, propose a consistent nonparametric estimator, and implement it using data on criminal cases from North Carolina. Employing the estimated model, I evaluate how different sentencing reforms affect the outcome of criminal cases. My res...
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作者：Strulovici, Bruno
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：What does contract negotiation look like when some parties hold private information and negotiation frictions are negligible? This paper analyzes this question and provides a foundation for renegotiation-proof contracts in this environment. The model extends the framework of the Coase conjecture to situations in which the quantity or quality of the good is endogenously determined and to more general environments in which preferences are nonseparable in the traded goods. As frictions become neg...
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作者：Genicot, Garance; Ray, Debraj
作者单位：Georgetown University; New York University; University of Warwick
摘要：This paper develops a theory of socially determined aspirations, and the interaction of those aspirations with growth and inequality. The interaction is bidirectional: economy-wide outcomes determine individual aspirations, which in turn determine investment incentives and social outcomes. Thus aspirations, income, and the distribution of income evolve jointly. When capital stocks lie in some compact set, steady state distributions must exhibit inequality and are typically clustered around loc...
