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作者：Currie, Janet M.; MacLeod, W. Bentley
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：Treatment for depression is complex, requiring decisions that may involve trade-offs between exploiting treatments with the highest expected value and experimenting with treatments with higher possible payoffs. Using patient claims data, we show that among skilled doctors, using a broader portfolio of drugs predicts better patient outcomes, except in cases where doctors' decisions violate loose professional guidelines. We introduce a behavioral model of decision making guided by our empirical ...
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作者：Dardanoni, Valentino; Manzini, Paola; Mariotti, Marco; Tyson, Christopher J.
作者单位：University of Palermo; University of Sussex; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of London; Queen Mary University London
摘要：Theories of bounded rationality often assume a rich dataset of choices from many overlapping menus, limiting their practical applicability. In contrast, we study the problem of identifying the distribution of cognitive characteristics in a population of agents from a minimal dataset that consists of aggregate choice shares from a single menu, and includes no observable covariates of any kind. With homogeneous preferences, we find that consideration capacity and consideration probability distri...
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作者：Taber, Christopher; Vejlin, Rune
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Aarhus University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：In this paper, we develop a model that captures key components of the Roy model, a search model, compensating differentials, and human capital accumulation on-the-job. We establish which components of the model can be non-parametrically identified and which ones cannot. We estimate the model and use it to assess the relative contribution of the different factors for overall wage inequality. We find that variation in premarket skills (the key feature of the Roy model) is the most important comp...
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作者：Mossel, Elchanan; Mueller-Frank, Manuel; Sly, Allan; Tamuz, Omer
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Navarra; IESE Business School; Princeton University; California Institute of Technology
摘要：We consider a large class of social learning models in which a group of agents face uncertainty regarding a state of the world, share the same utility function, observe private signals, and interact in a general dynamic setting. We introduce social learning equilibria, a static equilibrium concept that abstracts away from the details of the given extensive form, but nevertheless captures the corresponding asymptotic equilibrium behavior. We establish general conditions for agreement, herding, ...
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作者：Honore, Bo E.; Hu Luojia
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：It is well understood that classical sample selection models are not semiparametrically identified without exclusion restrictions. Lee (2009) developed bounds for the parameters in a model that nests the semiparametric sample selection model. These bounds can be wide. In this paper, we investigate bounds that impose the full structure of a sample selection model with errors that are independent of the explanatory variables but have unknown distribution. The additional structure can significant...
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作者：Canen, Nathan; Kendall, Chad; Trebbi, Francesco
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; University of Southern California; University of British Columbia; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper investigates the determinants of political polarization, a phenomenon of increasing relevance in Western democracies. How much of polarization is driven by divergence in the ideologies of politicians? How much is instead the result of changes in the capacity of parties to control their members? We use detailed internal information on party discipline in the context of the U.S. Congress-whip count data for 1977-1986-to identify and structurally estimate an economic model of legislati...
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作者：Corno, Lucia; Hildebrandt, Nicole; Voena, Alessandra
作者单位：Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; Boston Consulting Group (BCG); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study how aggregate economic conditions affect the timing of marriage, and particularly child marriage, in Sub-Saharan Africa and in India. In both regions, substantial monetary or in-kind transfers occur with marriage: bride price across Sub-Saharan Africa and dowry in India. In a simple equilibrium model of the marriage market in which parents choose when their children marry, income shocks affect the age of marriage because marriage payments are a source of consumption smoothing, particu...
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作者：Ke Shaowei; Zhang Qi
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We propose a model of preferences in which the effect of randomization on ambiguity depends on how the unknown probability law is determined. We adopt the framework of Anscombe and Aumann (1963) and relax the axioms. In the resulting representation of the individual's preference, the individual has a collection of sets of priors M. She believes that before she moves, nature has chosen an unknown scenario (a set of priors) from M, and from that scenario, nature will choose a prior after she mov...
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作者：Ergin, Haluk; Sonmez, Tayfun; Unver, M. Utku
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Boston College
摘要：Liver exchange has been practiced in small numbers, mainly to overcome blood-type incompatibility between patients and their living donors. A donor can donate either his smaller left lobe or the larger right lobe, although the former option is safer. Despite its elevated risk, right-lobe transplantation is often utilized due to size-compatibility requirement with the patient. We model liver exchange as a market-design problem, focusing on logistically simpler two-way exchanges, and introduce a...
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作者：Acharya, Sushant; Dogra, Keshav
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Using an analytically tractable heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model, we show that whether incomplete markets resolve New Keynesian paradoxes depends on the cyclicality of income risk. Incomplete markets reduce the effectiveness of forward guidance and multipliers in a liquidity trap only with procyclical risk. Countercyclical risk amplifies these puzzles. Procyclical risk permits determinacy under a peg; countercyclical risk may generate indeterminacy even under the Taylor principle. By af...
