4期

最新文章

• Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation AI翻译
  作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Carlos Escanciano, Juan; Ichimura, Hidehiko; Newey, Whitney K.; Robins, James M.
  作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Arizona; University of Tokyo; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
  摘要：Many economic and causal parameters depend on nonparametric or high dimensional first steps. We give a general construction of locally robust/orthogonal moment functions for GMM, where first steps have no effect, locally, on average moment functions. Using these orthogonal moments reduces model selection and regularization bias, as is important in many applications, especially for machine learning first steps. Also, associated standard errors are robust to misspecification when there is the sa...
• Robust Incentives for Teams AI翻译
  作者：Dai, Tianjiao; Toikka, Juuso
  作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
  摘要：We show that demanding team incentives to be robust to nonquantifiable uncertainty about the game played by the agents leads to contracts that align the agents' interests. Such contracts have a natural interpretation as team-based compensation. Under budget balance they reduce to linear contracts, thus identifying profit-sharing, or equity, as an optimal contract absent a sink or a source of funds. A linear contract also gives the best profit guarantee to an outside residual claimant. These co...
• Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Markov Regime-Switching Models With Covariate-Dependent Transition Probabilities AI翻译
  作者：Pouzo, Demian; Psaradakis, Zacharias; Sola, Martin
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of London; Birkbeck University London; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
  摘要：This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions, which allow for autoregressive dynamics in the observable process, Markov regime sequences with covariate-dependent transition matrices, and possible model misspecification. A Monte Carlo study examines the finite-sample properties of the ML estimator in correctly spe...
• Beyond Health: Nonhealth Risk and the Value of Disability Insurance AI翻译
  作者：Deshpande, Manasi; Lockwood, Lee M.
  作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia
  摘要：The public debate over disability insurance has centered on concerns about individuals without severe health conditions receiving benefits. We go beyond health risk alone to quantify the overall insurance value of U.S. disability programs, including value from insuring nonhealth risk. We find that disability recipients, especially those with less-severe health conditions, are much more likely to have experienced a wide variety of nonhealth shocks than nonrecipients. Selection into disability r...
• Terrorism Financing, Recruitment, and Attacks AI翻译
  作者：Limodio, Nicola
  作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
  摘要：This paper investigates the effect of terrorism financing and recruitment on attacks. I exploit a Sharia-compliant institution in Pakistan, which induces unintended and quasi-experimental variation in the funding of terrorist groups through their religious affiliation. The results indicate that higher terrorism financing, in a given location and period, generate more attacks in the same location and period. Financing exhibits a complementarity in producing attacks with terrorist recruitment, m...
• The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil AI翻译
  作者：Britto, Diogo G. C.; Pinotti, Paolo; Sampaio, Breno
  作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universidade Federal de Pernambuco
  摘要：We investigate the impact of job loss on crime and the mitigating role of unemployment benefits, exploiting detailed individual-level data linking employment careers, criminal records, and welfare registries for the universe of male workers in Brazil. The probability of committing crimes increases on average by 23% for workers displaced by mass layoffs, and by slightly less for their cohabiting sons. Using causal forests, we show that the effect is entirely driven by young and low-tenure worke...
• Determination of Pareto Exponents in Economic Models Driven by Markov Multiplicative Processes AI翻译
  作者：Beare, Brendan K.; Toda, Alexis Akira
  作者单位：University of Sydney; University of California System; University of California San Diego
  摘要：This article contains new tools for studying the shape of the stationary distribution of sizes in a dynamic economic system in which units experience random multiplicative shocks and are occasionally reset. Each unit has a Markov-switching type, which influences their growth rate and reset probability. We show that the size distribution has a Pareto upper tail, with exponent equal to the unique positive solution to an equation involving the spectral radius of a certain matrix-valued function. ...
• The Analytic Theory of a Monetary Shock AI翻译
  作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Lippi, Francesco
  作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Luiss Guido Carli University
  摘要：We propose an analytical method to analyze the propagation of an aggregate shock in a broad class of sticky-price models. The method is based on the eigenvalue-eigenfunction representation of the dynamics of the cross-sectional distribution of firms' desired adjustments. A key novelty is that we can approximate the whole profile of the impulse response for any moment of interest in response to an aggregate shock (any displacement of the invariant distribution). We present several applications ...
• From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share AI翻译
  作者：Hopenhayn, Hugo; Neira, Julian; Singhania, Rish
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Exeter
  摘要：In the U.S., large firms now account for a greater share of economic activity, new firms are being created at slower rates, and workers are receiving a smaller share of GDP. Changes in population growth provide a unified quantitative explanation. A decrease in population growth lowers firm entry rates, shifting the firm-age distribution toward older firms. Firm aging accounts for (i) the concentration of employment in large firms, (ii) and trends in average firm size and exit rates, key determ...
• Optimal Dynamic Information Acquisition AI翻译
  作者：Zhong, Weijie
  作者单位：Stanford University
  摘要：I study a dynamic model in which a decision-maker (DM) acquires information about the payoffs of different alternatives prior to making a decision. The model's key feature is the flexibility of information: the DM can choose any dynamic signal process as an information source, subject to a flow cost that depends on the informativeness of the signal. Under the optimal policy, the DM acquires a signal that arrives according to a Poisson process. The optimal Poisson signal confirms the DM's prior...