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作者：Spenkuch, Jorg L.; Teso, Edoardo; Xu, Guo
作者单位：Northwestern University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We combine personnel records of the United States federal bureaucracy from 1997 to 2019 with administrative voter registration data to study how ideological alignment between politicians and bureaucrats affects turnover and performance. We document significant partisan cycles and turnover among political appointees. By contrast, we find no political cycles in the civil service. At any point in time, a sizable share of bureaucrats is ideologically misaligned with their political leaders. We stu...
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作者：Pycia, Marek; Troyan, Peter
作者单位：University of Zurich
摘要：We study extensive-form games and mechanisms allowing agents that plan for only a subset of future decisions they may be called to make (the planning horizon). Agents may update their so-called strategic plan as the game progresses and new decision points enter their planning horizon. We introduce a family of simplicity standards which require that the prescribed action leads to unambiguously better outcomes, no matter what happens outside the planning horizon. We employ these standards to exp...
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作者：Muralidharan, Karthik; Niehaus, Paul; Sukhtankar, Sandip
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia
摘要：Public employment programs may affect poverty both directly through the income they provide and indirectly through general equilibrium effects. We estimate both effects, exploiting a reform that improved the implementation of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) and whose rollout was randomized at a large (sub-district) scale. The reform raised beneficiary households' earnings by 14%, and reduced poverty by 26%. Importantly, 86% of income gains came from non-program earni...
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作者：Bolotnyy, Valentin; Vasserman, Shoshana
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Most U.S. government spending on highways and bridges is done through scaling procurement auctions, in which private construction firms submit unit price bids for each piece of material required to complete a project. Using data on bridge maintenance projects undertaken by the Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT), we present evidence that firm bidding behavior in this context is consistent with optimal skewing under risk aversion: firms limit their risk exposure by placing lowe...
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作者：Fan, Tianyu; Peters, Michael; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Structural transformation in most currently developing countries takes the form of a rapid rise in services but limited industrialization. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to structurally estimate productivity growth in service industries that circumvents the notorious difficulties in measuring quality improvements. In our theory, the expansion of the service sector is both a consequence-due to income effects-and a cause-due to productivity growth-of the development process. We esti...
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作者：Rubbo, Elisa
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：This paper revisits the New Keynesian framework, theoretically and quantitatively, in an economy with multiple sectors and input-output linkages. Analytical expressions for the Phillips curve and welfare, derived as a function of primitives, show that the slope of all sectoral and aggregate Phillips curves is decreasing in intermediate input shares, while productivity fluctuations endogenously generate an inflation-output tradeoff-except when inflation is measured according to the novel divine...
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作者：Bleichrodt, Han; Grant, Simon; Yang, Jingni
作者单位：Universitat d'Alacant; Australian National University
摘要：Gul and Pesendorfer (2015) propose a promising theory of decision under uncertainty, they dub Hurwicz expected utility (HEU). HEU is a special case of & alpha;-maxmin EU that allows for preferences over sources of uncertainty. It is consistent with most of the available empirical evidence on decision under risk and uncertainty. We show that HEU is also tractable and can readily be measured and tested. We do this by deriving a new two-parameter functional form for the probability weighting func...
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作者：Ali, S. Nageeb; Kartik, Navin; Kleiner, Andreas
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Columbia University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：We study sequential bargaining between a proposer and a veto player. Both have single-peaked preferences, but the proposer is uncertain about the veto player's ideal point. The proposer cannot commit to future proposals. When players are patient, there can be equilibria with Coasian dynamics: the veto player's private information can largely nullify proposer's bargaining power. Our main result, however, is that under some conditions there also are equilibria in which the proposer obtains the h...
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作者：Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier
作者单位：Auckland University of Technology; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some firms. The effects on their decisions relative to their initial plans as well as relative to an untrea...
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作者：Gupta, Abhimanyu; Seo, Myung Hwan
作者单位：University of Essex; Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：We develop a class of tests for time-series models such as multiple regression with growing dimension, infinite-order autoregression, and nonparametric sieve regression. Examples include the Chow test and general linear restriction tests of growing rank p. Employing such increasing p asymptotics, we introduce a new scale correction to conventional test statistics, which accounts for a high-order long-run variance (HLV), which emerges as p grows with sample size. We also propose a bias correcti...
