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作者：Frahm, Gabriel; Hartmann, Lorenz
作者单位：Helmut Schmidt University; University of Basel
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作者：Leung, Michael P.
摘要：Since network data commonly consists of observations from a single large network, researchers often partition the network into clusters in order to apply cluster-robust inference methods. Existing such methods require clusters to be asymptotically independent. Under mild conditions, we prove that, for this requirement to hold for network-dependent data, it is necessary and sufficient that clusters have low conductance, the ratio of edge boundary size to volume. This yields a simple measure of ...
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作者：Christensen, Timothy; Connault, Benjamin
作者单位：New York University; University of London; University College London
摘要：We propose a framework for analyzing the sensitivity of counterfactuals to parametric assumptions about the distribution of latent variables in structural models. In particular, we derive bounds on counterfactuals as the distribution of latent variables spans nonparametric neighborhoods of a given parametric specification while other structural features of the model are maintained. Our approach recasts the infinite-dimensional problem of optimizing the counterfactual with respect to the distri...
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作者：Chatterjee, Satyajit; Corbae, Dean; Dempsey, Kyle; Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Cambridge; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of Pennsylvania; University of London; University College London
摘要：What is the role of credit scores in credit markets? We argue that it is, in part, the market's assessment of a person's unobservable type, which here we take to be patience. We postulate a model of persistent hidden types where observable actions shape the public assessment of a person's type via Bayesian updating. We show how dynamic reputation can incentivize repayment. Importantly, we show how an economy with credit scores implements the same equilibrium allocation. We estimate the model u...
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作者：Pycia, Marek; Troyan, Peter
作者单位：University of Zurich
摘要：We study extensive-form games and mechanisms allowing agents that plan for only a subset of future decisions they may be called to make (the planning horizon). Agents may update their so-called strategic plan as the game progresses and new decision points enter their planning horizon. We introduce a family of simplicity standards which require that the prescribed action leads to unambiguously better outcomes, no matter what happens outside the planning horizon. We employ these standards to exp...
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作者：Mckay, Alisdair; Wolf, Christian K.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We show that, in a general family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, knowledge of the empirically estimable causal effects of contemporaneous and news shocks to the prevailing policy rule is sufficient to construct counterfactuals under alternative policy rules. If the researcher is willing to postulate a loss function, our results furthermore allow her to recover an optimal policy rule for that loss. Under our assumptions, the derived counterfactuals and optimal policies are robus...
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作者：Muralidharan, Karthik; Niehaus, Paul; Sukhtankar, Sandip
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia
摘要：Public employment programs may affect poverty both directly through the income they provide and indirectly through general equilibrium effects. We estimate both effects, exploiting a reform that improved the implementation of India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) and whose rollout was randomized at a large (sub-district) scale. The reform raised beneficiary households' earnings by 14%, and reduced poverty by 26%. Importantly, 86% of income gains came from non-program earni...
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作者：Hubmer, Joachim
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This paper argues that a unified analysis of consumption and production is required to understand the long-run behavior of the U.S. labor share. First, using household data on the universe of consumer spending, I document that higher-income households spend relatively more on labor-intensive goods and services as a share of their total consumption. Interpreted as nonhomothetic preferences, this fact implies that economic growth increases the aggregate labor share through an income effect. Seco...
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作者：Kline, Patrick
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Ng, Serena; Prat, Andrea
