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作者：Imai, Kosuke; Li, Michael Lingzhi
作者单位：Harvard University; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：We examine the split-sample robust inference (SSRI) methodology introduced by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez-Val for quantifying uncertainty in heterogeneous treatment effect estimates produced by machine learning (ML) models. Although SSRI properly accounts for the additional variability due to sample splitting, its computational cost becomes prohibitive with complex ML models. We propose an alternative approach based on randomization inference (RI) that preserves the broad appli...
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作者：Berger, David; Herkenhoff, Kyle; Mongey, Simon
作者单位：Duke University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：Many argue that minimum wages can prevent efficiency losses from monopsony power. We assess this argument in a general equilibrium model of oligopsonistic labor markets with heterogeneous workers and firms. We decompose welfare gains into an efficiency component that captures reductions in monopsony power and a redistributive component that captures the way minimum wages shift resources across people. The minimum wage that maximizes the efficiency component of welfare lies below $8.00 and yiel...
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作者：Lipman, Barton
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作者：Melnikov, Nikita; Schmidt-padilla, Carlos; Sviatschi, Maria Micaela
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Princeton University
摘要：We study how criminal organizations affect economic development. We exploit a natural experiment in El Salvador, where these criminal organizations emerged due to an exogenous shift in American immigration policy that led to the deportation of gang leaders from the United States to El Salvador. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design that focuses on the gang-created system of borders, we find that individuals in gang-controlled neighborhoods have less material well-being, income, and e...
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作者：Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Hurtado, Samuel; Nuno, Galo
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Banco de Espana
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作者：Butters, R. Andrew; Dorsey, Jackson; Gowrisankaran, Gautam
作者单位：Indiana University System; IU Kelley School of Business; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Renewable energy and battery storage are seen as complementary technologies that can together facilitate reductions in carbon emissions. We develop and estimate a framework to calculate the equilibrium effects of large-scale battery storage. Using data from California, we find that the first storage unit breaks even by 2024 without subsidies when the renewable energy share reaches 50%. Equilibrium effects are important: the first 5000 MWh of storage capacity would reduce wholesale electricity ...
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作者：Carnehl, Christoph; Schneider, Johannes
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：Is more novel research always desirable? We develop a model in which knowledge shapes society's policies and guides the search for discoveries. Researchers select a question and how intensely to study it. The novelty of a question determines both the value and difficulty of discovering its answer. We show that the benefits of discoveries are nonmonotone in novelty. Knowledge expands endogenously step-by-step over time. Through a dynamic externality, moonshots-research on questions more novel t...
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作者：Cingano, Federico; Palomba, Filippo; Pinotti, Paolo; Rettore, Enrico
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Princeton University; Bocconi University; University of Padua; Fondazione Bruno Kessler; FBK-IRVAPP - Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies
摘要：We estimate the employment effects of a large program of public investment subsidies to private firms that ranked applicants on a score reflecting both objective rules and local politicians' discretion. Leveraging the rationing of funds as an ideal Regression Discontinuity Design, we characterize the heterogeneity of treatment effects and cost-per-new-job across inframarginal firms and estimate the cost-effectiveness of subsidies under factual and counterfactual allocations. Firms ranking high...
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作者：Castillo, Juan Camilo
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：New technologies have recently led to a boom in real-time pricing. I study the most salient example, surge pricing in ride hailing. Using data from Uber, I develop an empirical model of spatial equilibrium to measure the welfare effects of surge pricing. The model is composed of demand, supply, and a matching technology. It allows for temporal and spatial heterogeneity as well as randomness in supply and demand. I find that, relative to a uniform pricing counterfactual in which Uber sets the o...
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作者：Banerjee, Abhijit; Chandrasekhar, Arun G.; Dalpath, Suresh; Duflo, Esther; Floretta, John; Jackson, Matthew O.; Kannan, Harini; Loza, Francine; Sankar, Anirudh; Schrimpf, Anna; Shrestha, Maheshwor
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; The Santa Fe Institute; The World Bank
摘要：Policymakers often choose a policy bundle that is a combination of different interventions in different dosages. We develop a new technique-treatment variant aggregation (TVA)-to select a policy from a large factorial design. TVA pools together policy variants that are not meaningfully different and prunes those deemed ineffective. This allows us to restrict attention to aggregated policy variants, consistently estimate their effects on the outcome, and estimate the best policy effect adjustin...
