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作者：Vatter, Benjamin
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Policymakers and market intermediaries often use quality scores to alleviate asymmetric information about product quality. Scores affect the demand for quality and, in equilibrium, its supply. Equilibrium effects break the rule whereby more information is always better, and the optimal design of scores must account for them. In the context of Medicare Advantage, I find that consumers' information is limited, and quality is inefficiently low. A simple design alleviates these issues and increase...
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作者：European Summer Meeting
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作者：Iacovone, Leonardo; McKenzie, David; Meager, Rachael
作者单位：The World Bank; The World Bank; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：Policymakers often test expensive new programs on relatively small samples. Formally incorporating informative Bayesian priors into impact evaluation offers the promise to learn more from these experiments. We evaluate a Colombian program for 200 firms which aimed to increase exporting. Priors were elicited from academics, policymakers, and firms. Contrary to these priors, frequentist estimation cannot reject null effects in 2019, and finds some negative impacts in 2020. For binary outcomes li...
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作者：Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Mahoney, Neale
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We develop a stylized model that allows us to estimate a value-added measure for nursing homes (SNFs) which accounts for patient selection both into and out of a SNF. We use the model, together with detailed data on the physical and mental health of about 6 million Medicare SNF patients between 2011 and 2016, to estimate the value added for about 14,000 distinct SNFs. We document substantial heterogeneity in value added. Nationwide, compared to a 10th percentile SNF, a 90th percentile SNF is a...
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作者：Ottinger, Sebastian; Voigtlander, Nico
作者单位：Czech Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We create a novel reign-level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers' cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom var...
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作者：Luo, Daniel; Wolitzky, Alexander
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study reputation formation where a long-run player repeatedly observes private signals and takes actions. Short-run players observe the long-run player's past actions but not her past signals. The long-run player can thus develop a reputation for playing a distribution over actions, but not necessarily for playing a particular mapping from signals to actions. Nonetheless, we show that the long-run player can secure her Stackelberg payoff if distinct commitment types are statistically distin...
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作者：Wager, Stefan
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：We use the martingale construction of Luedtke and van der Laan (2016) to develop tests for the presence of treatment heterogeneity. The resulting sequential validation approach can be instantiated using various validation metrics, such as BLPs, GATES, QINI curves, etc., and provides an alternative to cross-validation-like cross-fold application of these metrics. This note was prepared as a comment on the Fisher-Schultz paper by Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fern & aacute;ndez-Val, forthcom...
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作者：Gai, Qingen; Guo, Naijia; Li, Bingjing; Shi, Qinghua; Zhu, Xiaodong
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：We exploit the implementation of a rural pension policy in China to estimate the average rural-to-urban migration cost for workers affected by the policy and the average underlying sectoral productivity difference. Our estimates, based on a large panel data set, reveal significant migration costs and substantial sectoral productivity differences, with sorting playing a minor role in accounting for sectoral labor income gaps. We construct and structurally estimate a general equilibrium househol...
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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Demirer, Mert; Duflo, Esther; Fernandez-Val, Ivan
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
摘要：We propose strategies to estimate and make inference on key features of heterogeneous effects in randomized experiments. These key features include best linear predictors of the effects using machine learning proxies, average effects sorted by impact groups, and average characteristics of most and least impacted units. The approach is valid in high-dimensional settings, where the effects are proxied (but not necessarily consistently estimated) by predictive and causal machine learning methods....
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作者：Bertrand, Marianne; Hsieh, Chang-Tai; Tsivanidis, Nick
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：India's Industrial Disputes Act (IDA) requires large manufacturing plants to pay substantial costs if they wish to shrink their workforce. Since the early 2000s, these large plants have dramatically increased their use of contract workers who are not subject to these regulatory constraints. Between 2000 and 2015, the contract labor share in non-managerial employment nearly doubled at establishments with more than 100 workers (from 21 to 40 percentage points), while it only increased from 14 to...
