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作者：Menzly, L; Santos, T; Veronesi, P
作者单位：University of Southern California; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago
摘要：We propose a general equilibrium model with multiple securities in which investors' risk preferences and expectations of dividend growth are time-varying. While time-varying risk preferences induce the standard positive relation between the dividend yield and expected returns, time-varying expected dividend growth induces a negative relation between them. These offsetting effects reduce the ability of the dividend yield to forecast returns and eliminate its ability to forecast dividend growth,...
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作者：MacDonald, G; Weisbach, MS
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The evolution of technology causes human capital to become obsolete. We study this phenomenon in an overlapping generations setting, assuming that technology evolves stochastically and that older workers find updating uneconomic. Experience and learning by doing may offer the old some income protection, but technology advance always turns them into has-beens to some degree. We focus on the determinants (demand elasticities, persistence of technology change, etc.) of the severity of the has-bee...
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作者：Welch, I
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：U.S. corporations do not issue and repurchase debt and equity to counteract the mechanistic effects of stock returns on their debt-equity ratios. Thus over one-to five-year horizons, stock returns can explain about 40 percent of debt ratio dynamics. Although corporate net issuing activity is lively and although it can explain 60 percent of debt ratio dynamics ( long-term debt issuing activity being most capital structure-relevant), corporate issuing motives remain largely a mystery. When stock...
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作者：Ashenfelter, O; Greenstone, M
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：In 1987 the federal government permitted states to raise the speed limit on their rural interstate roads, but not on their urban interstate roads, from 55 mph to 65 mph. Since the states that adopted the higher speed limit must have valued the travel hours they saved more than the fatalities incurred, this institutional change provides an opportunity to estimate an upper bound on the public's willingness to trade off wealth for a change in the probability of death. Our estimates indicate that ...
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作者：Carlton, DW; Frankel, AS; Landes, EM
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：This paper provides one of the few successful demonstrations of the efficiency of certain types of restrictions in the context of a joint venture. The joint venture we examine is the National Hockey League (NHL) in the 1980s, which was then composed of 21 separately owned teams. ( It now has 30 teams.) The restriction we analyze is the NHL rule on franchise relocation. Before one can fully understand the effect of the restriction, one must understand the theory of how sports leagues operate an...
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作者：Ekeland, I; Heckman, JJ; Nesheim, L
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Chicago; University of London; University College London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; University College London
摘要：This paper considers the identification and estimation of hedonic models. We establish that in an additive version of the hedonic model, technology and preferences are generically nonparametrically identified from data on demand and supply in a single hedonic market. The empirical literature that claims that hedonic models estimated on data from a single market are fundamentally underidentified is based on arbitrary linearizations that do not use all the information in the model. The exact eco...
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作者：Ryoo, JW; Rosen, S
作者单位：Kookmin University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; University of Chicago
摘要：This paper develops a dynamic supply and demand model of occupational choice and applies it to the engineering profession. The model is largely successful in understanding data in the U. S. engineering labor market. The engineering market responds strongly to economic forces. The demand for engineers responds to the price of engineering services and demand shifters. More important, supply and enrollment decisions are remarkably sensitive to career prospects in engineering. Also a rational mode...
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作者：Berry, S; Levinsohn, J; Pakes, A
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Harvard University
摘要：In this paper, we consider how rich sources of information on consumer choice can help to identify demand parameters in a widely used class of differentiated products demand models. Most important, we show how to use second-choice data on automotive purchases to obtain good estimates of substitution patterns in the automobile industry. We use our estimates to make out-of-sample predictions about important recent changes in industry structure.
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作者：Davis, SJ; Murphy, KM; Topel, RH
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We analyze entry, pricing, and product design in a model with differentiated products. Market equilibrium can be separating, with multiple sellers and a sorting of heterogeneous consumers across goods, or exclusionary, with one seller serving all customer types. Entry into an initially monopolized market can occur because of cost reductions or product improvements, but entry need not lower the incumbent's price, improve efficiency, or raise consumer welfare. Post-entry design incentives favor ...
