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• PERMANENT AND TRANSITORY COMPONENTS OF GNP AND STOCK-PRICES AI翻译
  作者：COCHRANE, JH
  作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper uses two-variable autoregressions to characterize transitory components in GNP and stock prices. Shocks to GNP holding consumption constant are almost entirely transitory, and account for large fractions of the variance of GNP growth. If consumption does not change, consumers must think that any GNP change is transitory. The facts that the consumption/GNP ratio forecasts GNP growth and that consumption is nearly a random walk drive this result. An implication is that consumption pro...
• ECONOMIC-INTEGRATION AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH - AN ADDENDUM AI翻译
  作者：RIVERABATIZ, L; ROMER, PM
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• THE SAVING OF THE ELDERLY IN MICRO AND MACRO DATA AI翻译
  作者：WEIL, DN
  作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：Examination of household (micro) data on the elderly has generally concluded that they do not dissave significantly, whereas estimates using aggregate (macro) data have shown that the presence of a large elderly population leads to a lower saving rate. This paper shows that if interactions between generations are important, one would not expect these estimates to be the same. The paper presents new evidence that bequests are plausibly the source of this discrepancy. Examination of data from yo...