-
作者：Rabin, M; Schrag, JL
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Emory University
摘要：Psychological research indicates that people have a cognitive bias that leads them to misinterpret new information as supporting previously held hypotheses. We show in a simple model that such confirmatory bias induces overconfidence: given any probabilistic assessment by an agent that one of two hypotheses is true, the appropriate beliefs would deem it less likely to be true. Indeed, the hypothesis that the agent believes in may be more Likely to be wrong than right. We also show that the age...
-
作者：Isham, J; Kaufmann, D
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; The World Bank
摘要：Using economic rates of return from World Bank-funded investments, we investigate how country characteristics and policies that influence aggregate performance affect investment productivity. Controlling for other characteristics, countries with undistorted (distorted) macroeconomic, exchange rate, trade, and pricing policies have highly productive (unproductive) investments. No type of project-in tradable or nontradable sectors-can be insulated from poor policies, where returns on investments...
-
作者：Hall, RE; Jones, CI
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Output per worker varies enormously across countries. Why? On an accounting basis our analysis shows that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker-we find a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries. At a deeper level, we document that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government po...
