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作者：Baron, Matthew; Xiong, Wei
作者单位：Cornell University; Princeton University; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：By analyzing 20 developed economies over 1920-2012, we find the following evidence of overoptimism and neglect of crash risk by bank equity investors during credit expansions: (i) bank credit expansion predicts increased bank equity crash risk, but despite the elevated crash risk, also predicts lower mean bank equity returns in subsequent one to three years; (ii) conditional on bank credit expansion of a country exceeding a 95th percentile threshold, the predicted excess return for the bank eq...
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作者：Angrist, Joshua D.; Hull, Peter D.; Pathak, Parag A.; Walters, Christopher R.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Conventional value-added models (VAMs) compare average test scores across schools after regression-adjusting for students' demographic characteristics and previous scores. This article tests for VAM bias using a procedure that asks whether VAM estimates accurately predict the achievement consequences of random assignment to specific schools. Test results from admissions lotteries in Boston suggest conventional VAM estimates are biased, a finding that motivates the development of a hierarchical...
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作者：Bhandari, Anmol; Evans, David; Golosov, Mikhail; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Oregon; Princeton University; New York University
摘要：A Ramsey planner chooses a distorting tax on labor and manages a portfolio of securities in an economy with incomplete markets. We develop a method that uses second order approximations of Ramsey policies to obtain formulas for conditional and unconditional moments of government debt and taxes that include means and variances of the invariant distribution as well as speeds of mean reversion. The asymptotic mean of the planner's portfolio minimizes a measure of fiscal risk. We obtain analytic e...
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作者：Cravino, Javier; Levchenko, Andrei A.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We investigate how multinational firms contribute to the transmission of shocks across countries using a large multicountry firm-level data set that contains cross-border ownership information. We use these data to document two novel empirical patterns. First, foreign affiliate and headquarter sales exhibit strong positive comovement: a 10% growth in the sales of the headquarter is associated with a 2% growth in the sales of the affiliate. Second, shocks to the source country account for a sig...
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作者：Levine, Ross; Rubinstein, Yona
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We disaggregate the self-employed into incorporated and unincorporated to distinguish between entrepreneurs and other business owners. We show that the incorporated self-employed and their businesses engage in activities that demand comparatively strong nonroutine cognitive abilities, while the unincorporated and their firms perform tasks demanding relatively strong manual skills. People who become incorporated business owners tend to be more educated and-as teenagers-score higher on learning ...
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作者：Heidhues, Paul; Koszegi, Botond
作者单位：Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf; Central European University
摘要：We initiate the study of naivete-based discrimination, the practice of conditioning offers on external information about consumers' naivete. Knowing that a consumer is naive increases a monopolistic or competitive firm's willingness to generate inefficiency to exploit the consumer's mistakes, so naivete-based discrimination is not Pareto-improving, can be Pareto-damaging, and often lowers total welfare when classical preference-based discrimination does not. Moreover, the effect on total welfa...
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作者：Bandiera, Oriana; Burgess, Robin; Das, Narayan; Gulesci, Selim; Rasul, Imran; Sulaiman, Munshi
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Bocconi University; Bocconi University; University of London; University College London
摘要：We study how women's choices over labor activities in village economies correlate with poverty and whether enabling the poorest women to take on the activities of their richer counterparts can set them on a sustainable trajectory out of poverty. To do this we conduct a large-scale randomized control trial, covering over 21,000 households in 1,309 villages surveyed four times over a seven-year period, to evaluate a nationwide program in Bangladesh that transfers livestock assets and skills to t...
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作者：Muir, Tyler
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I analyze the behavior of risk premia in financial crises, wars, and recessions in an international panel spanning over 140 years and 14 countries. I document that expected returns, or risk premia, increase substantially in financial crises, but not in the other episodes. Asset prices decline in all episodes, but the decline in financial crises is substantially larger than the decline in fundamentals so that expected returns going forward are large. However, drops in consumption and consumptio...
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作者：Kogan, Leonid; Papanikolaou, Dimitris; Seru, Amit; Stoffman, Noah
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; IU Kelley School of Business
摘要：We propose a new measure of the economic importance of each innovation. Our measure uses newly collected data on patents issued to U.S. firms in the 1926 to 2010 period, combined with the stock market response to news about patents. Our patent-level estimates of private economic value are positively related to the scientific value of these patents, as measured by the number of citations the patent receives in the future. Our new measure is associated with substantial growth, reallocation, and ...
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作者：Atkin, David; Khandelwal, Amit K.; Osman, Adam
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Columbia University; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：We conduct a randomized experiment that generates exogenous variation in the access to foreign markets for rug producers in Egypt. Combined with detailed survey data, we causally identify the impact of exporting on firm performance. Treatment firms report 16-26% higher profits and exhibit large improvements in quality alongside reductions in output per hour relative to control firms. These findings do not simply reflect firms being offered higher margins to manufacture high-quality products th...
