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作者：Battaglini, Marco
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：Technological advances and the development of social media have made petitions, public protests, and other form of spontaneous activism increasingly common tools for individuals to influence decision makers. To study these phenomena, in this article I present a theory of petitions and public protests that explores their limits as mechanisms to aggregate information. The key assumption is that valuable information is dispersed among citizens. Through petitions and protests, citizens can signal ...
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作者：Heller, Sara B.; Shah, Anuj K.; Guryan, Jonathan; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil; Pollack, Harold A.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Chicago; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：We present the results of three large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) carried out in Chicago, testing interventions to reduce crime and dropout by changing the decision making of economically disadvantaged youth. We study a program called Becoming a Man (BAM), developed by the nonprofit Youth Guidance, in two RCTs implemented in 2009-2010 and 2013-2015. In the two studies participation in the program reduced total arrests during the intervention period by 28-35%, reduced violent-crim...
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作者：Debortoli, Davide; Nunes, Ricardo; Yared, Pierre
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article develops a model of optimal government debt maturity in which the government cannot issue state-contingent bonds and cannot commit to fiscal policy. If the government can perfectly commit, it fully insulates the economy against government spending shocks by purchasing short-term assets and issuing long-term debt. These positions are quantitatively very large relative to GDP and do not need to be actively managed by the government. Our main result is that these conclusions are not ...
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作者：Tintelnot, Felix
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Most international commerce is carried out by multinational firms, which use their foreign affiliates both to serve the market of the host country and to export to other markets outside the host country. In this article, I examine the determinants of multinational firms' location and production decisions and the welfare implications of multinational production. The few existing quantitative general equilibrium models that incorporate multinational firms achieve tractability by assuming away ex...
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作者：Benmelech, Efraim; Meisenzahl, Ralf R.; Ramcharan, Rodney
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California
摘要：Illiquidity in short-term credit markets during the financial crisis might have severely curtailed the supply of nonbank consumer credit. Using a new data set linking every car sold in the United States to the credit supplier involved in each transaction, we find that the collapse of the asset-backed commercial paper market reduced the financing capacity of such nonbank lenders as captive leasing companies in the automobile industry. As a result, car sales in counties that traditionally depend...
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作者：Arezki, Rabah; Ramey, Valerie A.; Sheng, Liugang
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Oxford; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：This article explores the effect of news shocks in open economies using worldwide giant oil and gas discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output-the delay between a discovery and production is on average four to six years. We first analyze the effects of a discovery in a two-sector small open economymodel with a resource sector. We then estimate the effects of giant oil and gas discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent ...
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作者：Giroud, Xavier; Mueller, Holger M.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; New York University
摘要：This article argues that firms' balance sheets were instrumental in the transmission of consumer demand shocks during the Great Recession. Using micro-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we find that establishments of more highly levered firms experienced significantly larger employment losses in response to declines in local consumer demand. These results are not driven by firms being less productive, having expanded too much prior to the Great Recession, or being generally more sensitive...
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作者：Scheuer, Florian; Werning, Ivan
作者单位：Stanford University; University of Zurich; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：How are optimal taxes affected by superstar phenomena? To answer this question, we extend the Mirrlees model to incorporate an assignment problem in the labor market that generates superstar effects. Perhaps surprisingly, rather than providing a rationale for higher taxes, we show that superstar effects provide a force for lower marginal taxes conditional on the observed distribution of earnings. Superstar effects make the earnings schedule convex, which increases the responsiveness of individ...
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作者：Dustmann, Christian; Schoenberg, Uta; Stuhler, Jan
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of London; University College London; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：By exploiting a commuting policy that led to a sharp and unexpected inflow of Czech workers to areas along the German-Czech border, we examine the impact of an exogenous immigration-induced labor supply shock on local wages and employment of natives. On average, the supply shock leads to a moderate decline in local native wages and a sharp decline in local native employment. These average effects mask considerable heterogeneity across groups: while younger natives experience larger wage effect...
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作者：Martin, Ian
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：I derive a lower bound on the equity premium in terms of a volatility index, SVIX, that can be calculated from index option prices. The bound implies that the equity premium is extremely volatile and that it rose above 20% at the height of the crisis in 2008. The time-series average of the lower bound is about 5%, suggesting that the bound may be approximately tight. I run predictive regressions and find that this hypothesis is not rejected by the data, so I use the SVIX index as a proxy for t...
