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作者：Kamada, Yuichiro; Sugaya, Takuo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Stanford University
摘要：We construct a dynamic model of election campaigns. In the model, opportunities for candidates to refine/clarify their policy positions are limited and arrive stochastically along the course of the campaign until the predetermined election date. We show that this simple friction leads to rich and subtle campaign dynamics. We first demonstrate these effects in a series of canonical static models of elections that we extend to dynamic settings, including models with valence and a multidimensiona...
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; Bocconi University; Harvard University
摘要：Building on a textbook description of associative memory (Kahana 2012), we present a model of choice in which a choice option cues recall of similar past experiences. Memory shapes valuation and decisions in two ways. First, recalled experiences form a norm, which serves as an initial anchor for valuation. Second, salient quality and price surprises relative to the norm lead to large adjustments in valuation. The model unifies many well-documented choice puzzles, including the attribution and ...
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作者：Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We provide a continuous-time risk-centric representation of the New Keynesian model, which we use to analyze the interactions between asset prices, financial speculation, and macroeconomic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. In principle, interest rate policy is highly effective in dealing with shocks to asset valuations. However, in practice monetary policy faces a wide range of constraints. If these constraints are severe, a decline in risky asset valuations generates a d...
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作者：Sandvik, Jason J.; Saouma, Richard E.; Seegert, Nathan T.; Stanton, Christopher T.
作者单位：Tulane University; Michigan State University; Utah System of Higher Education; University of Utah; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We conducted a field experiment in a sales firm to test whether improving knowledge flows between coworkers affects productivity. Our design allows us to compare different management practices and isolate whether frictions to knowledge transmission primarily reside with knowledge seekers, knowledge providers, or both. We find large productivity gains from treatments that reduced frictions for knowledge seekers. Workers who were encouraged to seek advice from a randomly chosen partner during st...
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作者：Caplin, Andrew; Csaba, Daniel; Leahy, John; Nov, Oded
作者单位：New York University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We introduce a simple method of recovering attention costs from choice data. Our method rests on a precise analogy with production theory. Costs of attention determine consumer demand and consumer welfare, just as a competitive firm's technology determines its supply curve and profits. We implement our recovery method experimentally, outline applications, and link our work to the broader literature on inattention and mistaken decisions.
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作者：Enke, Benjamin
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：News reports and communication are inherently constrained by space, time, and attention. As a result, news sources often condition the decision of whether to share a piece of information on the similarity between the signal and the prior belief of the audience, which generates a sample selection problem. This article experimentally studies how people form beliefs in these contexts, in particular the mechanisms behind errors in statistical reasoning. I document that a substantial fraction of ex...
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作者：Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Saez, Emmanuel; Turner, Nicholas; Yagan, Danny
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Brown University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We construct publicly available statistics on parents' incomes and students' earnings outcomes for each college in the United States using deidentified data from tax records. These statistics reveal that the degree of parental income segregation across colleges is very high, similar to that across neighborhoods. Differences in postcollege earnings between children from low- and high-income families are much smaller among students who attend the same college than across colleges. Colleges with ...
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作者：Hendren, Nathaniel; Sprung-Keyser, Ben
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：We conduct a comparative welfare analysis of 133 historical policy changes over the past half-century in the United States, focusing on policies in social insurance, education and job training, taxes and cash transfers, and in-kind transfers. For each policy, we use existing causal estimates to calculate the benefit that each policy provides its recipients (measured as their willingness to pay) and the policy's net cost, inclusive of long-term effects on the government's budget. We divide the ...
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作者：Pflueger, Carolin; Siriwardane, Emil; Sunderam, Adi
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：We provide evidence that financial market risk perceptions are important drivers of economic fluctuations. We introduce a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVSt), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVSt is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and option prices is low. Using our measure, we show that high perceived risk is associated with low risk-free interest r...
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作者：Backus, Matthew; Blake, Thomas; Larsen, Brad; Tadelis, Steven
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); eBay Inc.; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study patterns of behavior in bilateral bargaining situations using a rich new data set describing back-and-forth sequential bargaining occurring in over 25 million listings from eBay's Best Offer platform. We compare observed behavior to predictions from the large theoretical bargaining literature. One-third of bargaining interactions end in immediate agreement, as predicted by complete-information models. The majority of sequences play out differently, ending in disagreement or delayed ag...
