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作者：French, E
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：This paper estimates a life cycle model of labour supply, retirement, and savings behaviour in which future health status and wages are uncertain. Individuals face a fixed cost of work and cannot borrow against future labour, pension, or Social Security income. The method of simulated moments is used to match the life cycle profiles of labour force participation, hours worked, and assets that are estimated from the data to those that are generated by the model. The model establishes that the t...
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作者：Halevy, Y; Feltkamp, V
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Maastricht University
摘要：The Ellsberg paradox demonstrates that people's beliefs over uncertain events might not be representable by subjective probability. We show that if a risk averse decision maker, who has a well defined Bayesian prior, perceives an Ellsberg type decision problem as possibly composed of a bundle of several positively correlated problems, she will be uncertainty averse. We generalize this argument and derive sufficient conditions for uncertainty aversion.
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作者：Heathcote, J
作者单位：Georgetown University
摘要：I undertake a quantitative investigation into the short run effects of changes in the timing of proportional income taxes for model economies in which heterogeneous households face a borrowing constraint. Temporary tax changes are found to have large real effects. In the benchmark model, a temporary tax cut increases aggregate consumption on impact by around 29 cents for every dollar of tax revenue lost. Comparing the benchmark incomplete-markets model to a complete-markets economy, income tax...
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作者：Hong, YM; Lee, YJ
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：Economic theories in time series contexts usually have implications on and only on the conditional mean dynamics of underlying economic variables. We propose a new class of specification tests for time series conditional mean models, where the dimension of the conditioning information set may be infinite. Both linear and nonlinear conditional mean specifications are covered. The tests can detect a wide range of model misspecifications in mean while being robust to conditional heteroscedasticit...
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作者：Jackson, MO; Wilkie, S
作者单位：California Institute of Technology
摘要：We characterize the outcomes of games when players may make binding offers of strategy contingent side payments before the game is played. This does not always lead to efficient outcomes, despite complete information and costless contracting. The characterizations are illustrated in a series of examples, including voluntary contribution public good games, Cournot and Bertrand oligopoly, principal-agent problems, and commons games, among others.
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作者：Lleras-Muney, A
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：Prior research has uncovered a large and positive correlation between education and health. This paper examines whether education has a causal impact on health. I follow synthetic cohorts using successive U.S. censuses to estimate the impact of educational attainment on mortality rates. I use compulsory education laws from 1915 to 1939 as instruments for education. The results suggest that education has a causal impact on mortality, and that this effect is perhaps larger than has been previous...
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作者：Primiceri, GE
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Monetary policy and the private sector behaviour of the U.S. economy are modelled as a time varying structural vector autoregression, where the sources of time variation are both the coefficients and the variance covariance matrix of the innovations. The paper develops a new, simple modelling strategy for the law of motion of the variance covariance matrix and proposes an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the model likelihood/posterior numerical evaluation. The main empirical co...
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作者：Turner, M; Weninger, Q
作者单位：University of Toronto; Iowa State University
摘要：Using data from the Mid-Atlantic surf clam and ocean quahog fishery, we find that firms with a preference for extreme, rather than moderate, policies are much more likely to participate in public meetings where regulation is determined. We also find that participation rates are higher for larger, closer, and more influential firms. These results: (1) improve-our understanding of a very common institution for resource allocation, meetings with costly participation, (2) they refine our intuition...
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作者：Duranton, G; Overman, HG
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：To study the detailed location patterns of industries, and particularly the tendency for industries to cluster relative to overall manufacturing, we develop distance-based tests of localization. In contrast to previous studies, our approach allows us to assess the statistical significance of departures from randomness. In addition, we treat space as continuous instead of using an arbitrary collection of geographical units. This avoids problems relating to scale and borders. We apply these test...
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作者：Caballero, RJ; Hammour, ML
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The observation that liquidations are concentrated in recessions has long been the subject of controversy. One view holds that liquidations are beneficial in that they result in increased restructuring. Another view holds that this rise in restructuring is costly since liquidations are privately inefficient and essentially wasteful. This paper proposes an alternative perspective. On the basis of a combination of theory with empirical evidence on gross job flows and on financial and labour mark...
